The Financial Collapse of 2001 Unwinding Message Board

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Financial Collapse of 2001 Unwinding

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next

To: elmatador who wrote (10248)	1/24/2023 1:15:33 PM
From: John Vosilla	3 Recommendations Recommended By alanrs elmatador pak73 Read Replies (2) of 13041

Pure stupidity monetary and fiscal policy especially in the COVID era. Looking at when yield curve inversion started around July 2022 (16 months prior to last recession) the rate of the inversion unprecedented ever is projected at 1.38 after two more .25% raises (4.83 Fed Funds / 3.48 10 yr treasury) homebuilders topped second half of 2021 (last time May 2005 or 29 months before recession) oil prices post Biden's 40% strategic petroleum reserve drawdown should be going back up to cycle highs this summer/fall NASDAQ asset bubble bursting also shakeout from remote work, overstaffing with much more layoffs to come if you take out the top market cap stocks apparently most public companies record debt to equity so even higher default risk in coming recession commercial RE especially urban office and 2nd and 3rd tier retail vacancy levels not seen since RTC days (check VNO stock chart) inability to fund option ARM type products low start teaser rates this cycle quickly took huge percentage of buyers out of the market spread between so many locked in at 3% fixed versus trading up or to a different area at over 6% makes very low transaction volume for the foreseeable future perhaps 7-10 years likely with tons of job losses multiple industries tied heavily to housing activity record new construction either recently CO'd or soon to be completed to flood the residential markets already seeing price drops 20% in some cases basically half the COVID bump already did I mention the federal debt approaching $32T with interest rate reset adding hundreds of billion a year to interest this year with many ramifications we had a recession 1990 oversupplied commercial RE and high all prices main drivers we had a recession 2001 NASDAQ bubble burst we had a near depression 2008 over leveraged overbuilt overvalued residential RE, high oil prices, banking crisis this time is combination of all the above except banks for now in somewhat better shape than 1990 and 2008, rents very high, government involvement all incentivizes people to stay rather than lose the house to foreclosure. playing out more and more like Biden 2021-24 = GWB 2005-08 ????? Will be interesting to see if recession hits late 2023 and it stock market indexes still go up most of this year like 2007???

Report TOU Violation

Share This Post

Public Reply Prvt Reply Mark as Last Read File

Previous 10 Next 10 Previous Next