2022 Biotech Charity Contest Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : 2022 Biotech Charity Contest

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From: technetium

1/2/2023 11:54:00 AM

2 Recommendations

Recommended By
A.J. Mullen
Aloner

of 267

The final report for the year!
27 out of the 33 contestants were in the top ten list this year. The biotech market was highly volatile and performed badly, but nearly everyone had a winner at one point or another.

Even if the market didn’t give us a lot to celebrate in terms of cash money, there were some entertaining moments.

The results for the 2022 contest were announced in an earlier post, but the detailed commentary for the week, as well as an end of contest wrap up, were deferred.

For a short, holiday bookended, week, there was a surprising amount of action in the end. The NASDAQ Composite, and its associated Biotech Index, both lost ground, but the S&P Biotech Index added +2.7%. At the end of the year, the tech heavy NASDAQ Composite lost -33%, substantially worse than the S&P 500, and DJ Average. The two biotech composites were in the red, (S&P Biotech -26%, NASDAQ Biotech -11%) but outperformed the broader performance of the market.

The last week GLYC added another +52% of its initial price, continuing momentum from last week’s announcement of positive stage three trial interim results, putting it’s year long performance at +110% Second place PDSB (+43% for the week, +63% for the year) also announced improved advanced cancer patient survival results visible during the phase 2 clinical trial. MACK had a great week as well (+28%) erasing most of the loss from the week before, and ending the year up +193%, the best performing stock in the contest. SNGX was the only notable loser for the week (-29%), seemingly with the market backing off from their enthusiasm for a positive (primate based) study result of the previous week. In terms of the whole year performance, it’s worth noticing CBIO in fifth place, where proceeds from a sale of IP returned to investors as a special dividend was much of the stock’s return for the year.

The following gives the results for every stocks chosen in the 2022 contest portfolios, ordered alphabetically by ticker, and in order of return.

Symbol	Annual Return	Symbol	Annual Return	Symbol	Annual Return	Symbol	Annual Return	Symbol	Annual Return
^SPSIBI	-25.71%	BIOA-B.ST	97.91%	FRTX	-85.44%	NBIX	40.24%	SEEL	-58.34%
2269.HK	-35.44%	BLCM	-51.68%	FSTX	25.90%	NBSE	-93.23%	SIOX	-66.28%
4BB.L	3.21%	BMY	15.40%	FULC	-58.85%	NCNA	-72.27%	SNGX	-31.55%
ABBV	19.36%	BPMC	-59.10%	GENO.ST	-45.41%	NKTR	-83.27%	SNPX	-86.37%
ABCM	-33.93%	BRTX	-36.64%	GLPG	-19.50%	NVCR	-2.30%	SNWV	-86.59%
ABIO	10.23%	BTAI	5.66%	GLYC	110.42%	NVTA	-87.82%	SPEX.SW	-75.78%
ACET	-48.89%	BTI.V	-81.48%	GMAB	7.13%	OCUL	-59.68%	SPPI	-70.98%
ACHL	-82.04%	CABA	144.06%	GNCA	-99.99%	OCUP	-5.36%	STOK	-61.53%
ACHV	-68.51%	CASI	-77.63%	GOSS	-80.81%	OMER	-64.85%	STSA	-80.00%
ACRS	8.32%	CBIO	113.07%	HALO	41.51%	ONT.L	-68.43%	STTK	-72.97%
ADAP	-61.07%	CDMO	-52.81%	HARP	-90.39%	OPTN	14.20%	SYNH	-64.28%
AFIB	-66.28%	CDTX	-40.45%	HPHA.DE	-2.45%	OTIC	-95.81%	TARA	-60.30%
AFMD	-77.54%	CGEM	-31.63%	HROW	70.83%	PACB	-60.02%	TARS	-34.84%
AKBA	-74.47%	CHRS	-50.38%	HRTIS.HE	-35.31%	PAX.ST	-42.49%	TCON	-46.21%
AKYA	-37.49%	CKPT	-83.57%	IDIA.SW	-28.97%	PCVX	101.56%	TGTX	-37.74%
ALBO	-7.21%	CLRB	-74.25%	IMTX	-35.19%	PDSB	62.96%	TOMDF	-84.66%
ALDX	74.00%	CLSD	-59.27%	IMUX	-85.37%	PFE	-13.23%	TRIB	-30.77%
ALNY	40.14%	CLVS	-97.00%	IMVT	108.33%	PHIO	-62.80%	TVTX	-32.25%
ALVR	-60.36%	CMPS	-63.67%	INCY	9.43%	PHO.OL	-6.08%	VKTX	104.35%
AMBS	-89.38%	CMRX	-71.07%	INZY	-84.60%	PIRS	-72.49%	VLON	-95.15%
AMRN	-64.09%	CRDF	-76.71%	IONS	24.12%	PLXP	-97.95%	VOR	-42.77%
AMRS	-71.72%	CRIS	-88.45%	IPHA	-18.20%	PRDS	-89.68%	VRCI.L	-78.92%
APLS	9.37%	CRSP	-46.36%	IPIX	-62.00%	PRQR	-53.81%	VRTX	31.50%
APTO	-57.04%	CRVS	-64.73%	JSPR	-93.85%	PRTC	-13.78%	VSTM	-80.37%
AQST	-76.81%	CYCC	-82.76%	KALV	-48.90%	PRTG	-50.71%	WVE	122.93%
ARCT	-54.17%	DCTH	-53.55%	KNSA	27.27%	PRVB	88.08%	XENE	26.22%
ARGX	8.18%	DNA	-79.66%	KZIA	-92.70%	PTE	-95.54%	XENT	3.44%
ARNA	7.60%	DRMA	-76.49%	LGND	-56.75%	PTGX	-68.10%	XERS	-54.61%
ASLN	-67.86%	DYAI	-72.79%	LIFE	-70.68%	QURE	9.31%	XFOR	-56.64%
ASMB	-44.21%	DYN	-2.52%	LPTX	-86.11%	RARE	-44.90%	XRTX	-60.59%
ATHX	-96.27%	ENTA	-37.79%	LQDA	30.80%	REGN	14.25%	XXII	-70.21%
AUPH	-81.11%	ESPR	24.60%	LRMR	-61.72%	REPL	0.37%	YMTX	-36.15%
AUTL	-63.39%	ETON	-34.27%	MACK	193.09%	RETA	44.07%	ZLAB	-51.15%
AVDL	-11.39%	ETTX	0.46%	MEIP	-90.88%	RFL	-63.33%
AVXL	-46.60%	EYEN	-59.25%	MESO	-39.38%	RHHBY	-24.26%
AYLA	-95.30%	FATE	-82.76%	MGTA	-91.08%	RIGL	-43.40%
AZT.OL	-31.16%	FBIO	-73.80%	MORF	-43.54%	RNLX	-88.24%
BBLG	-94.04%	FENC	118.18%	MREO	-53.13%	RVNC	13.11%
BCYC	-51.37%	FGEN	13.62%	MRK	44.77%	SCYX	-74.43%
BIIB	15.42%	FOLD	5.71%	MYOV	73.15%	SEDANA.ST	-83.46%

	Symbol	Annual Return		Symbol	Annual Return		Symbol	Annual Return		Symbol	Annual Return		Symbol	Annual Return
1	MACK	193.09%	41	ARNA	7.60%	81	VOR	-42.77%	121	CMPS	-63.67%	161	SEDANA.ST	-83.46%
2	CABA	144.06%	42	GMAB	7.13%	82	RIGL	-43.40%	122	AMRN	-64.09%	162	CKPT	-83.57%
3	WVE	122.93%	43	FOLD	5.71%	83	MORF	-43.54%	123	SYNH	-64.28%	163	INZY	-84.60%
4	FENC	118.18%	44	BTAI	5.66%	84	ASMB	-44.21%	124	CRVS	-64.73%	164	TOMDF	-84.66%
5	CBIO	113.07%	45	XENT	3.44%	85	RARE	-44.90%	125	OMER	-64.85%	165	IMUX	-85.37%
6	GLYC	110.42%	46	4BB.L	3.21%	86	GENO.ST	-45.41%	126	AFIB	-66.28%	166	FRTX	-85.44%
7	IMVT	108.33%	47	ETTX	0.46%	87	TCON	-46.21%	127	SIOX	-66.28%	167	LPTX	-86.11%
8	VKTX	104.35%	48	REPL	0.37%	88	CRSP	-46.36%	128	ASLN	-67.86%	168	SNPX	-86.37%
9	PCVX	101.56%	49	NVCR	-2.30%	89	AVXL	-46.60%	129	PTGX	-68.10%	169	SNWV	-86.59%
10	BIOA-B.ST	97.91%	50	HPHA.DE	-2.45%	90	ACET	-48.89%	130	ONT.L	-68.43%	170	NVTA	-87.82%
11	PRVB	88.08%	51	DYN	-2.52%	91	KALV	-48.90%	131	ACHV	-68.51%	171	RNLX	-88.24%
12	ALDX	74.00%	52	OCUP	-5.36%	92	CHRS	-50.38%	132	LIFE	-70.68%	172	CRIS	-88.45%
13	MYOV	73.15%	53	PHO.OL	-6.08%	93	PRTG	-50.71%	133	SPPI	-70.98%	173	AMBS	-89.38%
14	HROW	70.83%	54	ALBO	-7.21%	94	BCYC	-51.37%	134	CMRX	-71.07%	174	PRDS	-89.68%
15	PDSB	62.96%	55	AVDL	-11.39%	95	BLCM	-51.68%	135	AMRS	-71.72%	175	HARP	-90.39%
16	MRK	44.77%	56	PFE	-13.23%	96	CDMO	-52.81%	136	NCNA	-72.27%	176	MEIP	-90.88%
17	RETA	44.07%	57	PRTC	-13.78%	97	MREO	-53.13%	137	PIRS	-72.49%	177	MGTA	-91.08%
18	HALO	41.51%	58	IPHA	-18.20%	98	DCTH	-53.55%	138	DYAI	-72.79%	178	KZIA	-92.70%
19	NBIX	40.24%	59	GLPG	-19.50%	99	PRQR	-53.81%	139	STTK	-72.97%	179	NBSE	-93.23%
20	ALNY	40.14%	60	RHHBY	-24.26%	100	ARCT	-54.17%	140	FBIO	-73.80%	180	JSPR	-93.85%
21	VRTX	31.50%	61	^SPSIBI	-25.71%	101	XERS	-54.61%	141	CLRB	-74.25%	181	BBLG	-94.04%
22	LQDA	30.80%	62	IDIA.SW	-28.97%	102	XFOR	-56.64%	142	SCYX	-74.43%	182	VLON	-95.15%
23	KNSA	27.27%	63	TRIB	-30.77%	103	LGND	-56.75%	143	AKBA	-74.47%	183	AYLA	-95.30%
24	XENE	26.22%	64	AZT.OL	-31.16%	104	APTO	-57.04%	144	SPEX.SW	-75.78%	184	PTE	-95.54%
25	FSTX	25.90%	65	SNGX	-31.55%	105	SEEL	-58.34%	145	DRMA	-76.49%	185	OTIC	-95.81%
26	ESPR	24.60%	66	CGEM	-31.63%	106	FULC	-58.85%	146	CRDF	-76.71%	186	ATHX	-96.27%
27	IONS	24.12%	67	TVTX	-32.25%	107	BPMC	-59.10%	147	AQST	-76.81%	187	CLVS	-97.00%
28	ABBV	19.36%	68	ABCM	-33.93%	108	EYEN	-59.25%	148	AFMD	-77.54%	188	PLXP	-97.95%
29	BIIB	15.42%	69	ETON	-34.27%	109	CLSD	-59.27%	149	CASI	-77.63%	189	GNCA	-99.99%
30	BMY	15.40%	70	TARS	-34.84%	110	OCUL	-59.68%	150	VRCI.L	-78.92%
31	REGN	14.25%	71	IMTX	-35.19%	111	PACB	-60.02%	151	DNA	-79.66%
32	OPTN	14.20%	72	HRTIS.HE	-35.31%	112	TARA	-60.30%	152	STSA	-80.00%
33	FGEN	13.62%	73	2269.HK	-35.44%	113	ALVR	-60.36%	153	VSTM	-80.37%
34	RVNC	13.11%	74	BRTX	-36.64%	114	ADAP	-61.07%	154	GOSS	-80.81%
35	ABIO	10.23%	75	AKYA	-37.49%	115	STOK	-61.53%	155	AUPH	-81.11%
36	INCY	9.43%	76	TGTX	-37.74%	116	LRMR	-61.72%	156	BTI.V	-81.48%
37	APLS	9.37%	77	ENTA	-37.79%	117	IPIX	-62.00%	157	ACHL	-82.04%
38	QURE	9.31%	78	MESO	-39.38%	118	PHIO	-62.80%	158	FATE	-82.76%
39	ACRS	8.32%	79	CDTX	-40.45%	119	RFL	-63.33%	159	CYCC	-82.76%
40	ARGX	8.18%	80	PAX.ST	-42.49%	120	AUTL	-63.39%	160	NKTR	-83.27%

The second table shows just how brutal it was for the Biotech industry, at least for the issues picked for the contest. Out of 189 issues only 48 were in the black, 14 lost more than 90% of their value.

For the final report, the results of the last week returned BIO-TITAN, ROCKY9, and TAMBORELLI to the top 10 performing portfolios. GENEGURU, the winning portfolio, was in the top 10 list every week, 52 reports, though they made it to the number one position only for the last two weeks of the contest. DEW DILIGENCE (51), TECHNETIUM (51), and DIEGOSAN (50), also were frequent members of the top 10 club. The number one spot was occupied by only seven different contestants during the year, DIEGOSAN for a remarkable 39 weeks, followed by HORESINALFALFA (6), GENEGURU(2), TECHNETIUM(2), with single appearances by BRENDAN_49, JACK_HARTMANN, and RKRW.

GENEGURU’s individual stock picks performance:

Symbol	Initial Allocation	Initial Investment	Final Investment	Gross Return	Net Return	Eff. ROI	Annual Return
CKPT	10.0%	$10,000.00	$12,511.42	$2,799.24	-$9,712.17	-77.6%	-83.6%
DCTH	15.0%	$15,000.00	$18,767.12	$10,366.65	-$8,400.47	-44.8%	-53.6%
ETTX (*)	20.0%	$20,000.00	$20,000.00	$20688.39	$688.39	3.4%	3.4%
FGEN	10.0%	$10,000.00	$12,511.42	$14,833.05	$2,321.63	18.6%	13.6%
GLYC	15.0%	$15,000.00	$18,767.12	$49,123.09	$30,355.97	161.8%	110.4%
LQDA	15.0%	$15,000.00	$18,767.12	$25,333.59	$6,566.47	35.0%	30.8%
SIOX	5.0%	$5,000.00	$6,255.71	$1,825.04	-$4,430.67	-70.8%	-66.3%
XENE	10.0%	$10,000.00	$12,511.42	$15,614.24	$3,102.82	24.8%	26.2%

This portfolio was one of three that had selected a stock which was bought out during the course of the year, in this case ETTX. The buy-out price was almost identical to the price at the beginning of the contest, so this 20% of their portfolio was up to this point effectively a wash (a return of 3.4%). But this cash was then reinvested in their remaining seven picks. Because of the timing of the buyout, they were able to buy additional shares at prices below what they were at the start of the year (SIOX and XENE were the exceptions). This had the result that the effective ROI from choosing that particular stock was larger than the Annual Return of a stock purchased only at the start of the contest, and then sold at the end (Compare the last two columns of the table). This resulted in amplifying the value of his original 15% stake in GLYC from +110% to +116% return. GENEGURU’s owes his winning total return of +14% in the black can be attributed to their choice of GLYC, and having their remaining choices have a mix of winners and losers not far from the typical portfolios performance.

In contrast, our only other money maker portfolio, second place DIEGOSAN:

Symbol	Initial Allocation	Investment	Gross Return	Net Return	Eff. ROI
ABBV	12.5%	$12,500.00	$14,919.68	$2,419.68	19.4%
ALNY	12.5%	$12,500.00	$17,517.54	$5,017.54	40.1%
ARGX	10.0%	$10,000.00	$10,817.84	$817.84	8.2%
BMY	12.5%	$12,500.00	$14,424.62	$1,924.62	15.4%
BPMC	10.0%	$10,000.00	$4,090.19	-$5,909.81	-59.1%
ENTA	12.5%	$12,500.00	$7,776.14	-$4,723.86	-37.8%
FGEN	10.0%	$10,000.00	$11,361.70	$1,361.70	13.6%
PFE	10.0%	$10,000.00	$8,677.39	-$1,322.61	-13.2%
VRTX	10.0%	$12,500.00	$13,150.27	$650.27	5.2%

Six of their nine picks were winners for the year, but even their best (ALNY) had a return of only 40%, respectable if not quite as spectacular as GENEGURU’s GLYC return, but overall DIEGOSAN's winners just barely compensated for the three choices in the red, (e.g. a -60% loss of their investment in BPMC). Still, DIEGOSAN was one of the only two in the black at the end of the year, so they only faded at the end of the year.

As an example of a typical portfolio (we redact their identification and particular choices):

Initial Allocation	Investment	Gross Return	Net Return	Eff. ROI
10.0%	$10,000.00	$25,973.03	$15,973.03	159.7%
12.5%	$12,500.00	$12,961.31	$461.31	3.7%
10.0%	$10,000.00	$8,068.59	-$1,931.41	-19.3%
10.0%	$12,500.00	$5,722.89	-$6,777.11	-54.2%
10.0%	$10,000.00	$3,514.77	-$6,485.23	-64.9%
10.0%	$10,000.00	$3,422.69	-$6,577.31	-65.8%
12.5%	$12,500.00	$4,031.56	-$8,468.44	-67.7%
12.5%	$12,500.00	$3,666.67	-$8,833.33	-70.7%
12.5%	$12,500.00	$728.12	-$11,771.88	-94.2%

where they managed to hit one of the big winners in their nine picks, though the rest of portfolio’s losses overwhelmed this bright spot.

And for one of the most unlucky portfolios the results were

Initial Allocation	Investment	Gross Return	Net Return	Eff. ROI
10.0%	$10,000.00	$10,832.19	$832.19	8.3%
10.0%	$10,000.00	$4,687.50	-$5,312.50	-53.1%
10.0%	$10,000.00	$3,893.33	-$6,106.67	-61.1%
10.0%	$10,000.00	$3,720.00	-$6,280.00	-62.8%
10.0%	$10,000.00	$3,660.89	-$6,339.11	-63.4%
10.0%	$10,000.00	$3,214.29	-$6,785.71	-67.9%
10.0%	$10,000.00	$3,190.06	-$6,809.94	-68.1%
10.0%	$10,000.00	$2,751.32	-$7,248.68	-72.5%
10.0%	$10,000.00	$2,246.38	-$7,753.62	-77.5%
10.0%	$10,000.00	$1,851.85	-$8,148.15	-81.5%

where almost all of their choices were unfortunate, losing more than half their stake in all but one of their ten choices. Still, one of their choices was in the black.

Thanks again to everyone who participated. Biotech is hard to predict, as many of these companies are essentially research labs with an idea or invention that they think is worth pursuing, but not everything works out. Such is life.

Happy New Year!

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