|TLRY: I don't believe it's the same scenario because when I took that position before there were a couple variables that provided for rise and the stars had aligned perfectly. While it was my best single trade ever, I could have never forecasted all those tumblers dropping as they did:|
1) It was completely off the radar. The shares were at $7 as I recall and I was able to get the leaps at essentially $0 premium. As I recall I paid $2 for the $5 calls.
2) Cannabis was percolating but in was still mired in legalization issues
3) My "what if' scenario related to a democratic controlled power shift wasn't being forecasted by many, if any.
4) Wall Street Bets (WSB) hadn't fully found TLRY yet.
5) Short ratio was rising and laid the foundation for the rise to come.
Basically, all five of those provided for a perfect setup and we can't hope to have that setup quite like that again. That's not to say we need all of those for a great rise. All it takes is for continued legislations/acceptance, a healthy short ratio and WSB to provide for the grease to the engine of those catalysts.
TLRY financials seem to be improving and going forward, there's every chance this becomes a catalyst as well in the space. Their leadership position in supply and distribution could well pay dividends into full legalization. This is the primary variable I want to see come to pass ... want them to be a well run and viable model and then allow everything else to fall into place over time.
Always a good idea to take some profits where you can and not hold it all. I'm not discounting the possibility for another big rise and, of course, was actually banking on it while the premium came down. I tried to find that point where their is enough catalyst to support the premium which would allow me to either profit or roll those options forward without much cost involved and I still feel good about the timing.
I'm not against exercising those calls at $5 to take the shares if I see real improvement and traction in their model into legalization.