|When will this end what are the signs we are close?|
Looking for a flat to inverted yield curve probably higher than 2% and under 4% if look at long term trends since early 1980's peak.
12+ month bear market from the top in the large homebuilders. Looking at Lennar and DR Horton first.
at least six months inventory of existing home supply on the market.
PITI fixed rate homes priced below the local market median price versus equivalent rent no longer favorable in most housing markets.
Total mortgage debt to GDP approaches 2007 highs. Growing rapidly of late $200B a quarter new construction, cash out refi's and need to take on more and more debt with rising prices. This after being flat for a decade post financial crisis.
My Opinion we are getting closer but still at least 12-18 months away.. Oil up 28 days in the row big problem as was the huge spike prices and rents first half of 2021. Too much stress in part alleviate by more and more debt cars, houses eat + mortgage forbearance since COVID and 23% of income people get comes directly from the government more than double what it was 20 years ago. Is a mess no way out longer term. The more the government meddles everywhere the worst the backside of all this somehow, someday.