|Update: I'm back from my three week solo road trip down through Vegas to Grand Canyon, Tucson, day visit to some of the little towns south of Tucson, Mt. Lemmon and then back to the Grand Canyon (Guano Point) Henderson (NV), Reno, Crater Lake OR, and back home. Good to be back!|
General Market thoughts: Things still look toppy to me and while we are at or near new highs while the Nasdaq continues to rally,
I didn't make any trades during that time but thought I'd provide an update on some of my thoughts on some of my positions and market thoughts generally. I'm still not seeing enough catalysts to sustain a rally over the long term. Looking at the ARKK ETF, we essentially have a short term triple top near $126 and the weakness trend looks like it could/will continue. I won't be surprise to see this break through to the downside below $107 which likely means the tech rally has lost some steam.
Strongly considering adding back the 1/3 of my PSQ position I sold out of after the Nasdaq dropped nearly 10%. In hindsight should have sold it all but so be it. The Nas will roll at some point and it's going to be a real push/pull heading into the end of the year. First of 2022 will be difficult to hold as those who delayed cap gains selling for 2021 could look to sell in the new year. But I have said that before and have been wrong. We'll just have to wait and see.
The key with most all of these stocks is that when the market rolls over, very few will be spared. Value and those which have taken severe beatings already will fall less but most of the names on my list will fall. But that is why I also own a lot of blue chip stalwarts alike MMM, PFE, BRK/B, JPM, DE, BAC, VNQ, BA, DLR, C, KMB, KO, PEP, SBUX, K, PG, AIG, etc.
ROKU: It's now down more than 50% from the $490 high. It has been brutal. Growth has slowed but I can't say the story has changed much. It's just been thrown out while NFLX remains the darling. The reduced capitalization makes ROKU ripe for acquisition now but even without that, International growth will be key. I'm not selling or adding at this price yet. More inclined to add to my positions in my Roth and primary tax advantaged account. Pretty amazing drop though.
RBLX: What a boon. My cost is in the $84 range on 10/26, now sitting at $136 not a month later. Every fiber of my being wants to sell and take the gains as 62% in just over three weeks is pretty special. But this was an entry on the Metaverse hype and RBLX continues to be one of the primary stocks in the space, along with FB (Meta) and NVDA.
MRNA: Looking to exit this name at some point. Had a really bad first entry at $306 on the big decline but then the bottom dropped out and I added another leg at $230. The position is almost at break even. I like the long term potential of MRNA as basically the tech stock of the space. I will probably be selling 1/2 very soon (today?) and will look to roll out of the other half in time. I already have ABBV, BMY, PFE, MRK, etc. Currently MRNA is the 5th largest position in this account and that's too much given it's volatility for me.
LCID/RIVN: Pretty amazing plays. I'm still holding my LCID with a $19.82 cost basis from 9/9. I sold my RIVN on the spike to $127 but then it ran into the $150s. I would like to get it back but waiting for it to cool off a bit more. Was hoping today would be the day it would drop back below $120 again but it found more support here. Planning on a long term hold on both of these names as EV continues to capture the hearts and minds of everyone.
PENN: Along with DKNG, these two are two of my favorites in the space and they walk hand in hand ... in this case, they also fall hand in hand. Getting ready to add to PENN here. Blech.
NVDA: This is now the largest holding in the primary account. I thought I might have been late in my first entry at $120 back on 3/5/21. Guess not. I will continue to hold this name long term and won't be selling for probably a decade or more.
CRSP: Still one of my favorites in the bio science space along with SGEN (I don't own) but my first entries were not good it seems. Carrying a 20% loss as I continue to build a position. It's a long term hold and I'm find slowly adding to a full position over time. About to add another leg.
FUBO: One of my top speculative plays and it was great for a bit but has fallen with other streaming names. This is a long term acquisition play and I'll add another leg to the position in time. Would love to see $20 again and $15-$16 is possible if stocks roll over.
PYPL/SQ: Another set of 'wood shed' plays as both have been beaten and are now being kicked while down. I have a small position in both and looking to build through new legs on weakness. I'm still watching and waiting but will likely be adding to both shortly depending on the broader market strength.
ABNB: Still LOVE this play but finding the right value is not easy, especially following the recent spike. No way it holds this valuation, regardless of how much I like it, if the market rolls over. This goes for most all of these stocks here.
BROS: Anyone in the PacNW knows about Dutch Brothers. Expanding fast and they have a Gen Z cult following. I like them quite a bit even though I hate coffee. I missed it in the low $50s and refused to chase it as it closed on $80. First trade at IPO was in the $32 range in early Sept. Hoping to wait until the lock up expiration which should pressure the stock. WOuld love to get this name back near $32 but will start nibbling in the $40s.
MTTR: This is another digita/Metaverse play. Missed it at $22 after identifying it as a decent play. Not going to chase it here.
TDOC: Another play I'd like to add but still expensive even while it continues to get beaten, now at $121. It's sitting at long term support here and will be a "look out below" if it fails to hold, but could be a good place for a first entry if it does break through. If it holds, could also be a good first entry. This is a play on the future of medical visitation.
NEM/GOLD: These are two of my inflation plays and they have been popping up a bit. Decent yield while I wait and it's like having a cash sitting around as I can always sell them to purchase other positions if desire.
Z: I really like Zillow the service but hated the stock action especially as they were buying homes for resale. That eventually bit them in the butt and they have exited and the stock has gone from $208 to $57. I will be making an entry here shortly. It's sitting near long term support of $55 which occurred after the Covid recovery. I think they're a long term winner though I'd like to see sustained profitability.
That's all for now. Thanks for reading. If you have questions about ANY stock or my plays, let me know.
Be safe out there!