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Non-Tech : UAN - The variable distribution MLP that could go a long way
UAN 77.05-0.6%3:32 PM EST

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To: Area51 who wrote (286)10/20/2021 11:25:12 PM
From: Elroy   of 320
I don’t have a formal income statement model.

I just use Q2 as having a little over $4 in distributable income before charges, and UAN at $237 / ton in Q2, and break even of about $160 / ton for UAN.

From that you can increase the UAN / ton price, and every $20 increase adds about $1 per quarter in distributions.

For next year, revenues should be sky high, but perhaps new charges, higher natural gas costs, and who knows what else may appear? I prefer to wait to see what happens in Q3, then take a stab at what 2022 may look like. Any guess now is just a guess, and it seems like a good chance Q3 results will change the guess, so I’ll wait to see actual Q3 results before guesstimating what next year might look like.

But my hunch is next year the distribution will be well over $20 per unit.
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