|<<I think Publius has a tendency to over estimate how good things may be.>>|
He's good at documenting his assumptions, and I appreciate you guys taking the time to model this and shareing your results so I'm not going to complain about Publicus, and I won't complain about your model even if it ends up differing significantly from the actuals.
<<In addition to the Q3 results and distribution, I hope they give some indication that they didn't begin selling H1 2022 deliveries until recently. In other words, I hope they didn't sell out much of their H1 2022 production two months ago at prices which were then 40% below the level of current futures price.>>
Yeah things could get real interesting in 2022. What sort of numbers does your model give for H1 2022? If you start plugging 550 and 1000 in for UAN and NH3 instead of 300 and 510 for Q3, I'll bet we could see some nice EBITDA and DCF numbers.