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Non-Tech : UAN - The variable distribution MLP that could go a long way
UAN 79.94+1.3%10:03 AM EST

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To: Elroy who wrote (282)10/19/2021 2:06:29 PM
From: Area51  Read Replies (1) of 309
 
Reviewing how Publicus modeled the quarter for comparison (I think he used $290 and $510 for UAN and ammonia in line with what you assumed):

The third quarter distribution will be entirely dependent on how much of their production and inventory they sold during the quarter. Prices are certainly the summer fill prices plus maybe a tiny bit of spot pricing. If they sell exactly the same amount as last year in the third quarter (100% of UAN production and 50% of available ammonia), they will distribute a little over $5. They could obviously have sold less, holding out for higher prices in Q4, but I have no way knowing. I doubt very much that they sold more, but that is always possible. But even if they sold no NH3 at all, they could still distribute about $3 per unit.

A low quarterly distribution of about $3 wouldn't necessarily be bad if it is because they stockpiled ammonia for Q4 because it would have sold (will sell?) for a lot more in Q4.
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