|I'm just telling you what the CEO of CF said on the topic.|
I think they believe it makes more sense for companies located in regions with low cost natural gas (Iran, Russia, etc.) to build new nitrogen fertilizer plants.
Another poster says it takes four years to build such a plant. So.....the cycle should be quite long.
We can't expect the supply interruptions (Feb cold storm, Hurricane Ida in Aug) to recur every year, but I believe there is no new significant nitrogen fertilizer supply coming online in the USA for years.
But as I've said, I'm no expert.
When the companies do normal planned maintenance plant "turnarounds", one of the goals is to reduce bottlenecks and increase production capacity at existing plants. But this is incremental supply, not the type of supply increase that would cause an industry to be cyclical.
If some US-based fertilizer company plans to build a new factory, I'm sure we'll read about it and know about it years before it begins production. So far, nothing at all like that in the news I've read.