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Non-Tech : UAN - The variable distribution MLP that could go a long way
UAN 107.66+7.2%10:46 AM EST

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (260)10/12/2021 10:30:11 AM
From: Elroy   of 352
 
if I could believe the distribution were sustainable for several years.

I don't think we're going to have that sort of visibility.

And this is where the lack of knowledge of fertilizer industry and agriculture industry and commodities in general comes in to make long term forecasting difficult.

Fertilizer prices were in the dumps from 2016 to 2020. Why? I'm not really sure. Without that basic understanding, it's hard to forecast what will pull them back down once their current uptrend reverses.

In 2021 the February cold spell, the tariffs on Russian and Trinidad and Tobago imports and then Ida all contributed to price increases which had already begun in January. Why did prices jump so strongly in January? Not really sure, so .... hard to predict how prices go next summer if there are no new major production disruptions.

Currently it seems like they'll go up for a long time, but all it takes to change that view is to have them go down for a while, and then who knows what happens next?

However, I think due to interest savings from the debt refinance the "break even" UAN fertilizer price has been somewhat reduced. So, as long as UAN is above $200/ton they're going to distribute something reasonable, and UAN today for H1 is about $550/ton, so we're way above the zero distribution prices.
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