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Technology Stocks : Silicon Motion Inc. (SIMO)
SIMO 69.51+0.7%Dec 1 3:59 PM EST

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From: Elroy10/7/2021 1:26:17 PM
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Well, interesting that in the Q2 2021 call SIMO guided toward about $136m-$149m in Q3 sales, and the shares popped from $70 to $80. Today SIMO says the revenue number is going to be a tad above $149m, and the shares dip to $68.

Ho hum!

Q3 2021 sales are going to be about 100% higher than Q3 2020 sales.

I wonder what it will take for SIMO to get just a reasonable "market multiple" of say .... 18x next year's forecast EPS? Next year they're easily going to make $7.00, and perhaps might make as high as $10 depending on how things turn out. There's lots of moving parts now in revenue growth rates, gross margins, operating expense growth and etc. which make it tough to accurately forecast EPS. But it's clearly going to be above $7.00 unless some cataclysm happens (which is possible, I suppose).

The next bit of info we get is the new dividend rate in about two weeks. I don't know if they base the dividend on trailing EPS or forecast EPS. If trailing, the previous four quarter will be about $1.73 (Q3 2021), $1.50, $1.11 and $0.86, so .......about $5.20. I think they say the dividend is about half of EPS, which means about 55 cents per quarter (probably 50 cents to keep it clean) is reasonable. If the dividend is based on expected EPS and cash flow, then the dividend could be closer to 75 cents, but something tells me 50 cents is more likely.....
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