|Currently, starting at B range and up, an "average" sunspot group will produce 40 to 50 flares during that time.|
B range is relatively insignificant but they are flares. Rarely producing CMEs while providing some elevation of xray flux.
Out of those 40 to 50, there's likely to be 4 or 5 that go beyond B and into the C range.
Upper M, at this point, should provide some very helpful information. We're not there yet in the climb up cycle 25.
As the cycle progresses there will be more...and larger sunspots.
The potential is not negligible for the rise to more "magnetic complexity" associated with the climb to cycle 25 maximum that one of this cycle's sunspots might produce a flare large enough to produce terrestrial effects rivalling those of the Carrington Event. A large X class...Earth directed.
The flare needn't even be as large as Carrington at this point considering the difference in magnetosphere strength between then and now.
It's difficult to gauge the probability and timing based on the publicly available scientific data but if coupled with the actions of TPTB, there seems to be some sense of imminence on an intermediate term (not really short term but definitely not long term) time frame.