|I think it requires more patience. If you are backword looking UAN it doesn't look cheap now (EV = 1.2 billion, 6 month EBIDTA is 56 million and 12 month TTM is lower than that I presume; so EV/EBITDA is > 10). And company doesn't have any decent brokerage coverage. UAN should look cheap by the end of the fiscal year I predict (EV = 1.2 billion, with Publius FY 21 EBIDTA estimate of 337 million would be EV/EBITDA of 3.7 at the current price, and if you annualize second half EBIDTA it should look very cheap at its current price.|
But you are right that we need to look forward - the point is that 3Q is the quarter that they will finally print a clean quarter reflecting ALL of higher spot prices. Will the market start to finalize capitalize some of this? Of course totally TBD but I like the setup here. If it pulls back to the 50 area again I'll add a few calls, but if it flies straight to an EV of 8 x 337 million that would make be very happy even with just my current position.