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Non-Tech : UAN - The variable distribution MLP that could go a long way
UAN 75.61-0.5%10:45 AM EST

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To: Elroy who wrote (169)8/27/2021 9:04:46 PM
From: Area51  Read Replies (1) of 317
 
I think it requires more patience. If you are backword looking UAN it doesn't look cheap now (EV = 1.2 billion, 6 month EBIDTA is 56 million and 12 month TTM is lower than that I presume; so EV/EBITDA is > 10). And company doesn't have any decent brokerage coverage. UAN should look cheap by the end of the fiscal year I predict (EV = 1.2 billion, with Publius FY 21 EBIDTA estimate of 337 million would be EV/EBITDA of 3.7 at the current price, and if you annualize second half EBIDTA it should look very cheap at its current price.

But you are right that we need to look forward - the point is that 3Q is the quarter that they will finally print a clean quarter reflecting ALL of higher spot prices. Will the market start to finalize capitalize some of this? Of course totally TBD but I like the setup here. If it pulls back to the 50 area again I'll add a few calls, but if it flies straight to an EV of 8 x 337 million that would make be very happy even with just my current position.
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