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Non-Tech : UAN - The variable distribution MLP that could go a long way
UAN 76.10-2.4%Dec 3 4:00 PM EST

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To: Lesser_Ape who wrote (167)8/26/2021 12:21:40 PM
From: Elroy  Read Replies (1) of 318
 
Perhaps. I know all of that stuff, and I think it's a great investment.

The only big item on your list is "commodities will collapse", which means investors believe the price of fertilizer will decline.

That would ruin the UAN story. Lower fertilizer prices = less or no profits = zero distribution.

Fine.

However, fertilizer prices are still moving higher, and we are two months away from the seasonal period when fertilizer prices always rise. So.....I'm pretty sure fertilizer prices in Q2 2022 will be much above the current forward Q2 2022 fertilizer price, which is around $320/ton.

Again, we can all think of what is causing others not to buy UAN, but ...... to me, the bear story doesn't make any sense.

For Q3 2021 UAN will probably distribute $4.00, or more. It's very clear. And then, after that announcement, and the clarity that future distributions are likely to be at the same level, or more, the market will bid UAN units up $20?

I thought the market was forward looking? I'm NO fertilizer expert, and the outlook is obvious.
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