|> 20% + CAGR [for HPC] for next 4 years to 2025|
Wouldn't you know it — 20% CAGR is exactly AMD's financial model for long-term revenue growth, and coincidentally around the annual revenue growth Xilinx achieved on their own last quarter. With the current demand and momentum, I bet they will outperform that by a mile for the next couple of years, at least until the competition gets harder, out around 2023 maybe, if Intel product designers do a good job and is able to take advantage of leading edge process, or ARM server and client PC products see rapid acceptance. Then, hopefully, AMD+Xilinx will still remain competitive enough to grow with the industry, at that 20% CAGR number, perhaps.
That seems a pretty modest and realistic expectation as things look today.
But, perhaps AI keeps growing exponentially, which if AMD+Xilinx gets a nice foothold — a reasonable expectation, I think, judging by current super-computer wins and software drive towards open non-proprietary standards — may mean sustained growth for years to come, well beyond their current financial model.
Then 3-5 years down the line, we'll be gearing up for the next console cycle, in which the AMD semi-custom division, based on past successes, is guaranteed to play a central role, if not continue to dominate. At that point, mainstream adoption of raytracing and virtual reality may drive demand for much higher processing performance and efficiency. With the industry's push towards high framerate gaming monitors, driven by PCs and consoles with ultra low input latency, there is little chance that cloud gaming will eradicate gaming devices. However, casual gaming in the cloud may grow the gaming space as a whole.
At that point AMD+Xilinx should play a big role as a key player in the cloud infrastructure for all things HPC, from the central server cabinets to all the devices at the edge, processing ever more data.
Then there is the great opportunity to partake in the electrification of the automobile, as well as in the infrastructure for the clean power industry (design, simulation, control systems, etc.). And there is the management of the effects of climate change (research, monitoring and mitigation). And then there is automation and robotics on the rise.
So many opportunities for high-performance computing going forward, it is mind-boggling.