|msg #385, 16July|
the last sentence "China stuff be damned whether it's good enough, better or best. Does not matter" should have been written as:
"China stuff may be damned whether it's good enough, better or best. Does not matter"
for further reference, quarterly earnings calendar:
NIO is estimated to report earnings on 08/10/2021
LI, between Aug 26, 2021 and Sep 07, 2021 (the company has not announced a date yet and the estimate is based on historical earnings dates).
Is Nio Stock A Buy After Q2 Sales More Than Double?
( NIO) continues to see strong demand for its luxury electric SUVs so far in 2021, while innovating battery technology and expanding in Europe.
Is Nio stock a buy right now?
By 2030, fully electric and hybrid EVs will make up 90% of new car sales in China, Nio CEO William Li forecasts. That would be up from
about 10% in March, suggesting ample room to grow.
Nio stock earns an EPS Rating of 50 out of 99, and an SMR Rating of D, on a scale of A+ to a worst E. The EPS rating compares a company's
earnings growth vs. other companies. The SMR Rating measures sales growth, profit margins and return on equity.
In May, Nio's EV sales leaped 95% year over year but fell almost 6% month over month, hurt by the global chip shortage. However, in Q2 overall
Nio more than doubled EV sales.
On April 29, Nio delivered a wider-than-expected loss for the first quarter. Nio lost 48 cents a share as revenue swelled 529% to $1.22 billion.
Despite the surprise worsening of losses in Q1, they are seen narrowing this year.
Analysts expect Nio to pare losses to 46 cents per share in all of 2021 from 73 cents in 2020. Revenue is seen more than doubling to $5.45 billion
in 2021, according to FactSet.
Nine analysts rate Nio stock a buy, while no one has a hold or a sell, according to TipRanks.com.
Nio Stock Technical Analysis
U.S.-listed shares of Nio have come off May lows. But Nio stock remains 36% below the 52-week high of 66.99, so there's no traditional buy point
for now, according to MarketSmith chart analysis. It's poised for a test of the 10-week line, which has undercut its longer-term, 40-week counterpart.
Nio and Chinese stocks broadly have sold off in July thus far. China's cracking down on data collection by its technology giants. And increasingly
sophisticated, electric vehicles will generate lots of data.
The relative strength line for Nio stock is lagging. It rallied sharply for most of 2020. A rising RS line means that a stock is outperforming the S&P 500 index.
It is the blue line in the chart shown.
Shares earn a lackluster IBD Composite Rating of 58 out of 99. The rating combines key fundamental and technical metrics in a single score.
But a 93 RS Rating means that Nio's performance has been in the top 7% of all stocks over the past year. It well exceeds the 80 or higher that
investors in top growth stocks would want to see.
Nio's Accumulation/Distribution Rating of C+ reflects roughly equal buying and selling of shares by big investors over the past 13 weeks, according to the
IBD Stock Checkup tool. Nio has decent institutional backing: 806 funds owned shares as of June, down from 820 in March.
China EV Competition Grows
Nio targets China's luxury market for electric cars. Its rivals include Li Auto ( LI) and Xpeng ( XPEV). Plus, Chinese auto giant Geely and tech giant
Baidu ( BIDU) plan to jointly build EVs. Apple ( AAPL) supplier Foxconn also eyes the EV market. Geely just launched a new luxury EV brand, called Zeekr.
China's BYD ( BYDFF) has made a big luxury push with the Han electric sedan. BYD, backed by Berkshire Hathaway ( BKRB) chief Warren Buffett,
is one of the world's biggest EV and battery makers.
Tesla, Ford ( F) and Volkswagen ( VWAGY) launched rivals to the EC6, Nio's popular new electric crossover. Those EV rivals include Tesla's Model Y,
Volkswagen's ID.4 and Ford's Mustang Mach-E, all locally made in China for Chinese consumers.
Nio is expanding capacity in China, while gearing to launch its first overseas sales in Europe this fall. It will debut in Norway — a stronghold for Tesla —
with the ES8, a luxury electric SUV.
Outlook For Nio, EV Stocks
China's Nio, Li Auto and Xpeng are expanding operations to fend off Tesla on their home turf.
Nio seeks to increase monthly EV production to 10,000 units in the second half of 2021. It expects to reach 150,000 units per year by the first quarter
of 2022. Currently, it's limited to 7,500 units per month due to the chip shortage and robust demand for its new, longer-range batteries.
China EV sales are expected to rise more than 30% to 1.8 million units in 2021, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.
Globally, EV sales are expected to rise 70% in 2021, according to IHS Markit.But this year's global semiconductor shortage could foreshadow
an EV battery shortage, analysts say. The chip crisis hit Nio, as well as Tesla, Volkswagen ( VWAGY), General Motors ( GM) and Ford ( F).
Growth drivers for Nio include new and upcoming EVs. The ET7 electric sedan will be its first model capable of autonomous driving, packed
with 11 cameras and a long-range lidar system, Nio says. It arrives in Q1 2022.
Meanwhile, battery services are key to Nio's business model.
Nio offers an innovative subscription plan
for batteries. Basically, the car and the battery are sold separately. Users can buy Nio EVs without batteries for a lower price and "rent" batteries for a
monthly fee. They also can swap car batteries depending on their needs.
At its Power Day Friday, Nio announced a vast expansion of battery swap stations as well as the completion of 2.9 million battery swaps,
up from 1 million swaps last October. Nio said it will take take battery swaps to Norway, further challenging Tesla.
Is Nio Stock A Buy Now?
From a fundamental perspective, Nio's financial condition is improving after debt and liquidity fears slammed shares. It has significantly pared losses
while delivering huge top-line gains.
International expansion and battery innovations promise more runway for growth. But the EV wars are heating up, as legacy auto and tech giants
ramp up or get into the game. In the near term, the chip supply crunch is a headwind for automakers. Longer term, battery supplies could be
even bigger headache for EV stocks at large.
Nio stock staged a big rebound in June, but is now under renewed pressure and well off highs. Its RS line is lackluster. Check back for updates on
a new buy point.
Bottom line: Nio stock is not a buy right now.