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Strategies & Market Trends : The Aristocrats (tm)
OGZPY 10.19-2.0%Oct 21 4:00 PM EDT

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To: Riechers who wrote (2541)7/16/2021 9:19:11 PM
From: sense1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Arran Yuan

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The timing of the up-listing is interesting... as it seems to be the end of August where events are converging now, in the trades in precious metals, and those in relation to resolving the market issues around inflation or deflation versus Fed policy, interest rates, and the future of the dollar and other currencies...

Getting the inflation versus deflation argument right is the key... why I have been focused on filtering out the sources of noise, to focus on "what is"... as that set of risks is more closely related than other things to what usually drives gold and silver prices... more as the markets recognize shifts in the secular trends. So, need to understand recent price action in gold and silver (and the shares) in relation to their longer term trends... [the 40 year long bull market in bonds coming to and end ?] along with inflation / deflation trends, in both short term and long term influences... and how that depends on "real" factors... with disconnects in the market only sustainable over the shorter term... if still created for purpose.

Inflation / deflation... links to interest rates mostly as imposing limits in the flexibility of the central banks... but, inflation in particular, is not really fully under their control in the way that interest rates are... which generates some confusion in the market... I'll address that here in a post re Cathie Woods latest attempts [July 2] to confuse people about those things... "We're out of the woods on monetary policy" and "M2 is not a problem... while growing twice as fast as before the crash... when it was growing at 6 to 7%" ? But... no inflation ? She is "not a monetarist"... so she doesn't believe in " Monetarist theory [which] asserts that variations in the money supply have major influences on national output in the short run and on price levels over longer periods." ???

She's generating misdirection from a series of disconnects she fosters... seeing only what she wants to see... even while telling you she's doing that as: "I'm biased to believe in deflation" and "I am not a monetarist"... But shes also thinks Democrats won't try to raise taxes which she sees would be bad... and thinks ramping up of fiscal stimulus is all and only good... and it won't cause inflation ? The latest there... is Biden is back to pushing a $3 trillion dollar "infrastructure" package... and Democrats now think they'll pass if without Republicans help. Meanwhile, the prior trillions pushed out into the market... are being hoovered up by banks, recycled into QE as Reverse Repo... cash is removed from circulation and applied to drive rates lower... to make it look like there's not an impact from that ? They are sitting on the money flows that are created... trying to prevent money doing anything but what they want... preventing the economy from actually growing the way it would if there were money in the market... as even growth in M2 is a metric that doesn't matter without velocity... but, "growth" in the economy is also just window dressing... a metric that doesn't matter... without velocity to spread the benefits of growth to more than those few getting all the free money that is being printed... and not used... or not used more than once ?

She appears to actually believe innovation driving deflationary trends is all that matters... not just in the long term, but more as "inflation is a bogeyman that doesn't really exist". But, that's also talking her book as an investor in higher risk stocks, with those she chooses being magically defined as the "innovators" that matter. Basically... she doesn't really have to understand how money works in the economy... to pick stocks well enough as she talks her book, during a bull market. But, listen to that drivel and take it seriously ? The problem is... that of Janus... two faces... talking out of two sides... saying different things...

On the one hand... Wood is saying everything is great... there is no inflation... so rates are low... and that means stocks will continue to go higher... so buy my fund. On the other, she's saying deflation is coming and the market is going to crash by 84%... but, how do you get deflation... by ending the policies, like QE, that work to create it ? The question as she addresses it is far more about a deflation in "stock prices"... than it is about a deflation in real economic terms ? The Fed's / bank's ability to sustain QE wealth transfer functions... is reaching limits. The endgame for the Fed... requires there will be either an inflationary recession, or a deflationary recession. Wood WANTS the deflationary version... and a continuation of the trade that sustains her narrative it in the long term. But, what happens instead... might be the rotation trade based on the end of the 40 year long bull market in bonds and tech stocks... and the end of the 40 year long bear market in commodities and gold mining stocks...

I'm old enough to remember... when the darlings of Wall Street were not purveyors of wisps of vapor in the ether.... but real things. When "industrial" stocks meant companies that make steel... or other real things...
And, I remember days when those who gush over holdings in Apple or Tesla now... would instead be talking about the gold mining stocks they owned... ? I think most in the market can't conceive of that sort of a rotation in the focus of the market occurring, now...?

I think you should listen to Warren Buffett.... "Looking At The Price Is Not Investing" and note the similarities and differences between him and Wood... while also seeing that investors are traders too, if with a longer term focus. Buffett sells things, too ? Entire companies ? It's not all just buy and hold forever ? It is a benefit for small investors to be able to buy cheaper than Warren Buffett. And its an advantage to be able to trade... in a way that he can't... which still only works if you trade well. His point being most people, as investors, are looking at the wrong things in valuing businesses... which I agree with. How you convert that awareness into an ability to "buy low"... how well you trade based on awareness of the value... AND awareness of the relative advantage that exists for traders in the changes in prices... ? Where will the price of company X be on August 31st... or the end of February ? Where will the company be in proving up its value... in 5 years ? What will the price of gold do... from here... and for the next ten years ?

For a better bead on the macro view... since Buffett doesn't care... and Wood is either conflicted, confused., or both... I'd listen to Ray Dalio instead... but only for the macro view... since his own trading calls aren't as useful a guide as his macro view ? Steven van Metre seems he is doing a vastly better job than others, these days, in drilling down to what matters... in a macro perspective.

Wood has been on a rant or two recently about "rotation" in the market ? But, she's still touting bitcoin to $500,000... as if "innovation in technology has now solved the problem of money"... which it hasn't...

I do think there is a limit being reached... in our ability to sustain an economy driven by debt... That Ray Dalio view of the role debt plays in the economy captures some of it... but still misses the nature of the problem, the limit, and the impact of the leverage... resulting only from the bait and switch enabled in changing from a system in which "debt is repaid with money"... to one in which "the debt is the money"...

And, understanding that... is why they BIS is repositioning banks into being holders of gold, again... as they are clearly working at preparing for a "rotation trade"... that many are incapable of comprehending as possible...

What Wood can't comprehend... is any rotation in the market that would have people again valuing gold more than debt, and gold stocks more than technology stocks... and "real" things more than ephemeral enhancements of manipulations driven by technology... that a growing number of people have had more than enough of already. Tech... is no longer a good thing... when the "advantages" it creates...are only employed by others seeking to use them to harm you ?

That's all too big of a picture... to be comprehensible to some people... Others... are selling tech stocks and buying farm land ?

Puzzled by the bond market moves... Wood is not seeing inflation as real... so can't see yields that are less than the rate of inflation... as a source of concern... but only sees the absolute value in a lower rate being all and only good... as nominal rates converge to zero. But reality is... rates are already negative on an inflation adjusted basis. Bond holdings are wasting assets... the only questions being how fast are they wasting... and how far might that trend in "the evaporation of value" continue ? As nominal rates go to zero... the real value of a bond does not go to infinity ? Negative real rates... means not just "pushing on a string" but tying it around your neck and feeling the influence of gravity ? QE and Reverse Repo... while queuing up for "printer go Brrrr" in fiscal policy... has proven still not enough to save the banks ?

So, the Warren Buffett view... of the future value of the business... requires value investors to be able to parse those sorts of long term risks... remaining always aware of them... to recognize inflection points... and tipping point phenomena as they become apparent...

Are we at the beginning (from a bottom made in 2018) of a new "commodities super-cycle"... and what does that actually MEAN in terms of WHAT ELSE is going to be changing in the market... for it to be true ?

My view... is that inflation is real... driven by structural factors most in the market can't even recognize... which I've written about often enough... beginning with predicting that adopting the approach that has been taken... would lead us to exactly the circumstances that are now imposing themselves...

I'm not surprised by it... others can't see it at all... And, many who can see it... still don't have an explanation for it. Peter Schiff.... gets it... and adopts a Warren Buffett view of the long term approach... with "it's inevitable" dominating his vision. Others who get it... Brent Johnson... etc., agree there's a problem... without that meaning they agree on how things will unfold in the short term. Add more views from people who do get it, more or less, and the range in expectations only expands ? In real terms, they're often struggling to understand "what is"... as, the impacts of QE, or the Repo Crisis, or Reverse Repo, much less "what will be"... Given a proper understanding of MOPE as a policy, and what it makes inevitable... what does it mean when policy is based on lies ? And, what does inevitability add to enable timing the realization of risks ?

Some people who should get it, seem they don't... Economist explains 3 SIGNS that hint if massive inflation is coming... leaving you wondering. Laffer touting gold as a predictor of inflation ? Gold didn't anticipate inflation in the 70's but hit a peak over 700 in 1980... and then fell only after rates rose... to match the rate of inflation ? [My calls in that era... buy gold at $45 when it was legalized, sell it $700 to buy CD's yielding 21% over 5 years.] And, gold having "fallen back" to 300 in 2001... seems to have failed in predicting the end of currency debasement from there until... now ? The peak in 2011 ended with BIS policy changes on timing... that issue now timely again... with the pull back from all time highs recently... not seeming to predict much. And, all of that... while ignoring that the price of gold and interest rates are being manipulated... to keep them down... when they'd not be down where they are in a truly free market ? "You get what you pay for... When something is free its really expensive"... has him telling you what you SHOULD make of what he's saying ? Laffer seems he is sticking to the story with them... but he adds a few hints in "things to watch" that aren't totally off base... even if none can really be "forward looking"...

"Gold has not gone up" ? He's not looking at the same charts I am... and, with "price, under manipulation" not being "the free market price" anyway ? Listen to Buffett on the price... "price is not value"... and ponder the purpose of the manipulation in context of the dislocations apparent in the NVI and Accumulation on a chart going back to 1980... to capture the NVI functions ? The negative volume index... goes from +200 to -270... as price goes from 300 to 2100, under heavy accumulation, all with the price being manipulated LOWER ? Laffer... is lying... even about "the dollar has not been devalued" while comparing it to even worse currencies rather than to gold moving 700% higher ? "This is a different monetary system today"... hand waves past "we don't have a free market any more"... and ignores that does not a damned thing to change the way reality works ? And, still an apologist for shipping our jobs to China... while ignoring the impacts that has on... everything ? The free market has been broken... converted to mercantilism... and mercantilism is fragile. has broken, and is failing... while our politics fail... and the elections are a fraud... making you deserve the government you vote for... not about us, what we want, or our voting ?

There is inflation now... and there will be more inflation... and it is not transitory... (and that is the goal) but the market issue is... when will that fact be realized, as until it is being FORCED into being realized by the market participants... there is lots of room for that misdirection being generated to be applied in the trades based on having created it. Laffer, again... wrong that gold LEADS inflation... rather than responding to the fact of it... all the more, of course, when what people are told about it ahead of time is a lie...

Other narratives ? There seems to be an assumption about inflation... and the markets ? Reality it...inflation is not bad for stocks... ? Stocks will keep up with inflation. It is money that will not keep up with inflation. And, rising yields to "fight" the inflation ? Buffett got that part right, in the opposite... by focusing on the RELATIVE impact of rates... versus sales and earnings. Rising inflation makes for good numerical comparisons... as long as prices rise more than rates rise... ? And, that should and will spawn a rotation from bubble stocks to value stocks... and from growth stocks to inflation hedges and defensive issues... which we haven't really seen happen since... the early 1960's into the early 1970's ? That's what's coming.

And, to understand it... Laffer wasn't wrong... this is a different system now... and it works differently... so you need to know how $ and markets work NOW versus in the past, how QE works, and how it doesn't, what it does versus what they say it does, and how Reverse Repo does whatever it it that it does, and what impact that has, etc. But, also, see what is happening in politics and in the world beyond economics and finance... those things Laffer slides past too glibly... in trade, politics and elections... as a source of current or future value, or the opposite. The dollar is not the Zim... but gold is not $300 an ounce now... nor is it fairly priced by free market functions and functional price discovery at $1829... ?

When will MOPE finally fail... so they stop lying ? What will go down with it ? When will the government think it useful, again, to start following the laws instead of just ignoring them ?

Peter Schiff more right about all of that than others are, here addressing MOPE and the lies only indirectly, and not in terms of the aggregate and accumulated impacts of policies based on lies in:

"We Couldn't Have Been More Wrong"

He's right that "they know"... My opinion, posted here before this became topical... was that the policy choice made would be to enable the inflation... while stalling in recognizing it... lying about it... denying it exists as long as possible. Because inflation is the best bad option of the other bad options available... and the lag in acting enabled by the denial... ensures the policy isn't interfered with by those who recognize its damaging impacts before others do.

So there are shortages, Schiff says, as they CAN print money... but they can't print goods"... which of course conflicts with the alternate view in "transitory"... that instead blames the virus as the reason there aren't goods being made... which only masks the failures occurring in trade... as the mercantilist system fails.

Wood, with the Fed and others, including Laffer, are food dragging in recognizing it... for a reason... but, have begun admitting that there is inflation, now... (but are still ignoring it by admitting it... while the admission "it exists" enables them in over-looking one of the highest ever recorded leaps in inflation that just happened ?) Laffer's "its too soon to tell"... is a joke, of course... That's just how the game is played.

Still, no one is talking about "how to fix trade"... since they can't... or, at least since they stole the election from Trump, no one is talking about "how to bring our jobs back", so that Laffer is simply made wrong about how much we need care about China's opinion, or influence, to ensure we can fill the shelves at Walmart ?

Schiff, here from June 21st, talking about gold and silver prices... on the day that they bottomed:

"The Problem Is Bigger Than We Thought" - Peter Schiff Interview

Cathie Woods might not like it... but reality is that accelerating inflation will force changes in Fed policy, and thus interest rates... at some point crafted to be too little too late... also a reason they'd like for you to not notice there is inflation yet. But, if Woods is "not a monetarist" shouldn't she relish higher rates and the wonders of deflation they'll bring" ? That she cares about higher rates... knows that they'll gut the market... tells you she's lying about her understanding of the relationship between money and markets. She is not wrong that higher rates might and should put an end to the endless stock market rally... that her livelihood depends on having be sustained... still, has me conjuring up the quote from Upton Sinclair: “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”

And, then, there's that wild card in gold (and silver)... which no one wants to mention too loudly now, it seems... that gold and silver aren't just "real money" that provides a hedge against inflation... they are also "real money" that provides a hedge against "global systemic risk"...

All of that... a very long pre-amble... before looking at gold and the impact that the gold price has on mining shares ?

Gold is moving higher again, on trend... since June 21... and it seems silver has decided to do that, also ?

But, mining shares, that were assumed to have bottomed in May this year... ? Are they set to resume their march higher, on trend, too ? Or, was that "bottom is in" manta from May wrong... and lower is coming ?

What happens if Wood is right... and the market crashes 84% from here... Won't gold and silver go down right along with the other assets being hugely over-priced now in the market ?

That's always been my concern... and the reason "wait for it" had me reluctant to go all in as prices rose in February... and that had me wait well into April and May... for proofs there was a bottom being put in...

My look at the charts now... only confirms that the uptrend in gold that started in 2018 is still intact... with gold now following the lower bound on that trend higher... having completed its correction in May, after coming off of the highs made in October last year... Gold is not making new highs right now... but it is trading HIGHER along the lower bound of the line defining the uptrend in the bull market since 2018.

How much do investors in gold and silver shares understand... about all of that in the foregoing... or just that apparent in the gold price charts ? They thought "the bottom is in" back in May... expecting ten years of higher prices in a straight line... like they've seen occurring in the S&P ? Now, instead, there's been a bit of a walking back from that newly hatched uptrend... in a short, sharp reversal ? But, that took gold back to the lower limit in the uptrend... only.... and confirms the bull market is intact... with new highs ahead yet to be made... over the next 2 or 3 to 5 years...

Shareholders... or, traders who are selling now... are acting based on short term trend in price change... not on their understanding of the fundamentals or the market situation... Or, they know the miners are constantly beaten down... and are well conditioned to expect that now, so they simply line up to take their beatings in the way they've been conditioned to expect ?

That's not the right approach, now... IMO...

The right view of a trade in that context, has to be one that puts it in the proper context... of all those forces in competition... including all of those "talking book" rather than engaging in honest analysis and seeking to inform you about "what is"... in the risks that exist...and "what is" in what the larger market is doing... in what other mining shares are doing... and what the specific issues have as unique drivers... and what one stocks' chart says vs gold and silver price charts, or the charts of other stocks. And what the fundamentals in one issue or another are doing... is often more than enough to overcome all those other forces ... making bad days in the market... into good days for those looking to buy low ? Shake all that up together... and look at how any and all of that comes together in a way that is likely to influence TIMING in events ?

We know what has not changed is that central banks are buying gold... and, as a part of the rules changes under the Basel III... clocks are ticking... and they keep buying... as they have been buying since 2008, at least. Basel III dates keep slipping... with adjustments made in the timing of implementation resulting from central bank buying causing prices to rise... That buying fueled the 2011 bull market in PMs. They killed that rally with the slip in schedule... because banks don't like paying you fair market value for your gold. So, they also keep manipulating the price lower in order to facilitate their buying... GATA proofs and all the fines paid for being caught fixing prices... not enough to alter the behavior.

The 2011 bull market convinced them to extend the trade... and not compete with each other to load up... so they granted banks allocated open periods to acquire... as the others stood down. Some cheating has been occurring... but, still, relative to 2011... the suppression trade continues as the banks continue buying... the now well documented and proven frauds in the trade, as GATA has exposed at the COMEX... doesn't alter the reality... The banks pay a few fines as a cost of business, and carry on...

The end of June saw the compartmentalized buying window shift from Europe and the U.S. to the U.K., and with it... a renewed effort in manipulation... with the control over that trade now largely shifting from the COMEX to LBMA's watch... even as COMEX trades now settle in London, not with good delivery, but with a share in a claim for metals that are also claimed by others.

So, having just seen that major shift of the trade approaching in June... price ran up... with June 21 being the day the Basel III rules changed in the U.S. and the E.U. (which they also lied about) Then, gold suddenly dropped from 1900 back to 1750... for no other obvious reason ? Continue to ignore what they say... since they're lying... and focus on what they do...

In this case... it appears "buying low" means buying when gold finds the lower bound in the uptrend line drawn from the bottom in October 2018... to today... the same low it hit at the bottom in March of 2020. But, gold has attacked its prior high, from 2011, and fallen back... which, on a monthly chart, shows the decline from August of 2020 forming the "handle" on a massive cup and handle pattern dating back to 2011.

And, that pattern is fully consistent with what we know about what has created it... in the persistent accumulation driven by the banks buying... and their kicking the can down the road when the high price of gold started causing banks to fail... in 2011... as that pattern commonly revealed that (not enough) gold in the failed banks vaults was being claimed by (too many) multiple owners. The delay in implementing Basel III... was because the banks persistent fraud in the gold trade made the banks insolvent as prices rose and shortages led customers to demand and reclaim possession their gold...

And, that's the reason they're buying... is the reality in systemic risks being realized in 2008... which are risks that have not been shed, and have not been managed yet... The buying of the gold by the central banks... is the effort being made to ENABLE that problem in being managed... and they're not there yet.

But, they're getting there... currently slated for January 2022... and, when they do... odds are pretty good that "change will ensue"... Perhaps "change" like that we just saw on June 21 ? Probably some of that... but, that's still just a short term wiggle in a chart... not a systemically important transformation...

Will gold be re-valued at that future point. as may be scheduled... or only whenever they decide it must be?

Gold has already had its correction... from 2011, and from August of 2020 to May of 2021, while other assets have not corrected for almost a year... while gold didn't really participate in the events of March 2020 nearly as much as other things. Silver... as it typically does... is lagging gold... by not having started higher with it in October 2018, and by not moving up at all, really, until May of 2019...

Draw a line from the lows in silver in May of 2019 to today... and you find silver following a line higher, rather like gold... only with one very large excursion far lower in March 2020, in a ridiculous move down to $12, that killed the volume in the trade by half... until moving up to meet that line again and crossing $15 in July. When gold began correcting in August of 2020... silver followed it... then crashed hard in October, bottomed when it hit the line... and then it resumed higher following the line...which is bumped into and is now following again.

Silver looks to be at a bottom again, too... but is lagging gold's move higher again... because... I don't know why... that's what silver always does...

A weekly chart for gold shows... four solid weeks of buying in May... then the price rose... four solid weeks of selling.... only after which the price fell off a cliff suddenly... and, now, we've had four solid weeks of buying, again, with gold resuming higher it is again following the dominant trend by following the line higher. The money flows correlate as you'd expect... showing "the market" buys when prices go up, and sells when prices go down... while the banks buy low, run the price up, sell high, run the price down and resume buying... as now.

Gold bottomed in the short term four weeks ago... and has now resumed trading as if it didn't just have a rug pulled out from under it ? But, on the weekly chart... gold bottomed in October 2018... and a line drawn from the lows then to March of 2021... shows the March low of 2021 tracking on the uptrend since 2018... and the recent move lower puts us back on that line... on the uptrend, at the lows on the trend line. Note the drop in gold in the March 2020 event... took it down to that line and no farther ?

What does that trend in gold say about other things ? The BIS policy shift has banks buying gold... and has restored gold to again being a tier one asset, carried on the books at full value as an asset... as part of a plan to restore balance sheet integrity in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. It has taken them 12 years to try to get that done ? Jim Rogers out with new Youtube vids today, saying he prefers silver because it is at only 50% of its prior highs... versus gold at all time highs ?

I like silver, too, but I think that's a bit of a mistake... as it ignores not only the long history of price suppression in gold... and that dynamic we just saw demonstrated in spades in the trade in June, as the means by which central banks buy gold... but, it ignores their purpose in buying... while assuming the price now has the banks "buying at the highs"... as helpless victims of market forces... forced to "buy high" ?

Yeah. Not buying that...

Silver's role... perhaps like that of cryptos... simply to distract competition from other buyers into other trades ? Crypto trading in what otherwise would be considered counterfeit money... has been allowed... only for that reason... as a "digital gold" spoof to enable banks buying the real thing on the cheap ?

A weekly chart for silver shows it fulfilling its traditional role...

But, silver does have the propensity to be more volatile... the market manipulation is only more overt... as Goldman showed us back in February, and a few times since...

Bottom lines: The last time gold hit new highs, in 2011... it did that by outperforming the S&P by 100% in that period just prior... up from neutral in 2008. But, golds' recent new highs reached in July-August 2020, were made while gold under-performed the S&P by 25% ? That under-performance occurred during an eight year period, from 2014 to the present, in which gold under-performed the S&P by 25% or more every year... and, in 2021, thus far... gold is under-performing the S&P by 44%.

Silver, in the same comparison, over-performed by 150% in 2011, but then under-performed by 25% in 2013, by 50% in 2014 through 2016, and then by MORE than 50% in each of the last 5 years. The "new high" in silver after the crash of 2020... at just under $30... occurred with silver still under-performing the S&P by 47%... while it is currently under-performing by 56%...

And, Cathie Wood... wants you to believe that it is GOLD and SILVER that are in a bubble... not her tech stocks ?

It is still always a mistake to assume that a price that has fallen, can't fall more. Prices can always go to zero... or less, as the oil market proved last year...

But, in the precious metals... it is a known factor that is driving the price lower... while banks manipulate the trade to lower the price as they seek to accumulate... and it would be a wonder if the banks implemented a policy to enable them in correcting for the holes left in their balance sheets, after 2001 and 2008. that seem they aren't capable of being filled in by the ability to print fiat money at the pace of Brrrrrrr... in the deliberately made attempt. Somehow, for the banks to avoid failing... the existing derivative liabilities still need to be made to go away ? Of course, I've been pointing out the problem and saying "let the banks fail" since 2007, and before ? Now... the risks are massively amplified... as "too big to fail" is taken literally... and may yet prove to be... "a passing whimsy".

So, if banks ARE doing that... accumulating while suppressing the price, even if still failing in keeping the price from rising... and then they plan to continue to sit on the price once they've completed the trade to get as much gold for themselves as they can... ?

That might well explain why the banks are constantly perched on the brink of failure in the first place... losing money and hiding the fact... even when they have the ability to create more out of thin air ?

Peter Schiff has been preaching about this for years and years... like a broken record... One might instead point to a broken clock... and point out it has been more correct more often... But, as it appears Peter Schiff might soon be vindicated... don't expect those whose failure Peter has been predicting to point that out, or congratulate him on being proven right ?

How high will they let inflation go before... pretending to take action to reign in it... and fail in not doing enough ? When will the QE taper begin... and why will the taper not force banks into insolvency... as it appeared to occur in prior efforts to do more than think about thinking about it... ? How and when will the 10 year bond yield change... and how will the markets respond to that ? When will the bond market crash... and when will the stock market crash ? Have the "stress tests"... really modified the banks systemic risks, or their ability to withstand a shock ? When will Basel III rules kick in, for real... and what will happen before the nightmare of Basel IV arrives ?

Getting the big picture right... puts the right questions in the right context...

That's what I've been working to do here... and perhaps have come close to accomplishing that in what I'm putting up here, today...

But, this also can't really offer specific answers... about what happens next, and when.... when the assumption that the market will behave rationally ... while following free market principles... appear it is wrong... "The market"... no longer determines those things for itself... but simply does what it is told... and will continue to do that, one might expect... right up until that doesn't work anymore...

So, hints on progress, and thus on timing... come from reading the tea leaves in the incremental changes as you see the Fed, and Cathie Wood, creep slowly along and admit more of what they'd been denying before... But, really, the market USED TO anticipate inflation... and now we're told "it might happen" only after its already running hot at over 5% ? Record-Breaking Inflation (What They're Not Telling You)

Watch the change... the rate of change,,, and the rate of change in the rate of change ? Watch what they DO not what they SAY... but, then, figuring out what they're doing is pretty much a puzzle in itself ?

Has any one explained (?) Reverse Repo better than Steven van Metre ?
June 25 : The Shocking Truth of How the Fed Caused the Collateral Shortage
July 5: Trillions: The Fed's Collateral Shortage is About to Explode

Other worthies, like Jeremey Grantham... here as part of others covering "surveys" of pundit opinions: which adds some context:

Biggest Market Crash in History - Warning!
Michael Burry Warns Of The Next Great Depression (And Criticizes Cathie Wood)

I've noted it here recently... that one of the pundits who is usually pretty good... see him often enough in context with other bearish pundits... has opinions that are often biased more towards "the banks". And, I've noted a reason for that... is that his method depends on cultivating inside sources, which he then uses to name drop... along with dropping tidbits he's picked up... or been asked to deliver...

So, what does Jim Rickards say now ?

July 12: If Only We Knew: "I Never Thought This Day Would Come" - Jim Rickards Interview

July 14: Its Coming Soon: "People Need To Be Aware Of This Before It's Too Late" - Jim Rickards

That's probably more than enough for today ?



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