|I am just spitballing here, but I think Micron will make an offer to buy WDC to consolidate their NAND capacity with their own and sell off the HDD division to someone else. I don't think WDC has the capitalization or borrowing power to buy Kioxia, but MU could pull it off if they wanted to. But, why not just buy WDC for less and get half the capacity of the JV with WDC for a lower price? The $64,000 question is, what would the price be? If MU is able to work out a price with WDC before the Kioxia IPO is priced, they might make out better. Would WDC be willing to accept an offer before the Kioxia IPO? I suppose that depends on what they think of the offer.|
As much as I think WDC would like to end up with Kioxia, I think they are dreaming. It's just too much for their pocket book and current debt level. So, if you accept that the industry is consolidating, WDC may not have the horsepower to compete with the remaining much larger players in the market after the Kioxia IPO unless WDC is purchased by MU.
Disclosure, I am holding both stocks, but I have reduced my WDC holdings to just a couple thousand shares and shifted capital to MU over the past few months.