|Much to puzzle over in the charts, today ?|
As in other things... conflict reveals much... as might its resolution.
Sometimes what is revealed is more important... than how one hand in a game appears it plays out... which appears it is true also in staged productions... even as different observers may see things differently... depending on what they are looking for... or know to look for... that others do not. If you directed the trade today... probably not puzzled by how the charts depict it ? If you aren't an insider directing how the trade will play, how do you find those tells of already known conflicts that are revealed... in charts ?
I think you look for things that don't add up... while not ignoring those that do ?
Markets are like balloons... you can squeeze them, twist them, make funny animals... float them to the ceiling with helium... or pop them and drop them to the floor... but, what you can't do, is squeeze them here... without them bulging over there. And, as pressure is increased, weaker spots will tend to appear. There are limits in elasticity... and there is variation in pressure... along with sometimes unexpected weaknesses in materials... and varying skills in magicians ability to manipulate and entertain with balloons...
And, of course, a modern reality in risk that you see what they want you to see... and they find a way to hide the rest. Also, there are variations in the skills of pit crews... only some dropping lug nuts... or mindlessly wandering onto the track.
Is it true, or not... that silver prices are suppressed by massive short positions ?
Is it true, or not... that the bubble we are in... inflates all asset prices equally... not just stocks ?
No one following gold and silver stock index charts would believe that. So, why this and not that ?
Not ignoring it matters as much as it ever does... who is buying and selling, and who is not... and both why and what and when they are buying, and/or selling ?
Why was the Russell 2000 down today... carving a pattern that looks exactly like the Dow was cut out from it... and pasted up above it on the upside of the zero line... while the NASDAQ and S&P500 were both up, in nearly identical patterns, as oil, gold and silver were down hard, at first, in very similar patterns ?
Apparently, stimulus check money does not at all like the Russell 2000 stocks... in exactly the same but opposite way it likes the Dow... and thus Ma and Pa sold stocks they did not already own to buy the Dow...
If Mazlo were a market technician... or a central banker... what would the hierarchy of needs look like... and who would it be trying to front run the trade ? It appears the message today is... trust the lies we tell you... rather than the ones we paint on charts ? And then, much less about Mazlo, and far more about Skinner.
Perhaps the more radical intermittent interventions and messaging causing whipsaw moves in markets... are deemed to have a more salubrious overall effect on market psyche than calm consistency in messages and action... that allows the market function to work without directing the awkward and heavy-handed use of triangles and protractors ?
Should I be hoping that tomorrow they'll make the chart into a wiener dog... ?
I'd think not... so, my interpretation is that today is perhaps something of an inverse incident of dropping lug nuts... in which they're grabbing up all the loose lug nuts they can find... stuffing their pockets... no matter the impact...
To which my reply is... if it clearly isn't "the charts" that are lying... I still see no reason to act based on what they seem to say, when it is others lies being told on/by/through the charts. So, the first trick seems it is in identifying when the behavior seen in the charts deviates from "reflecting the market function" to "reflecting something else"... while adopting the appropriate variables in skepticism in interpretation based on the situation.
In considering charts... if your expectations of the market seem well founded... and you seem to be in synch with the "feel" of the market... and then things suddenly start to behave oddly...
Is there any reason to believe... that today should have been a massively bullish day in "some" stocks... and not others... based mostly on the index of which they are a part ? Makes no sense to me. An oddity in "random" disconnects I've noted much more of recently. Suggesting... the new pit crew may have stocked up on lug nuts... but it still seems they have ZERO feel for the market...
The S&P went up all day, following a nearly straight line at a 15 degree angle... until 3 pm when it went down at a 30 degree angle until the close. Looks perfectly natural. /s
I fully get why buyers with stimulus money to spend buying stocks... would buy at a perfectly steady pace charting that ramp, with only a few minor changes... until exactly 3 pm... when the bankers head out for the golf course.
So, my question would be... given the obvious pattern in a "directed" trade... or market manipulation... what comparable patterns exist... and with what events did those prior patterns correlate.
Oh, yeah... and with rates rising, and the Fed saying they're going to sustain easy money over the long haul... accepting "a little bit more" inflation than we've had... in forty years... the Fed also announced a "normalization" of capital standards following the market implosion of March 2020... which means they are combating rising rates... by relaxing capital restrictions on banks... to make a bit more liquidity in flow...
So, maybe not stimulus checks hitting the markets... but banks robbing the Russell 2000 to pay the Dow ?
And, that $ in a loan you needed to get your restaurant working again after Covid... looks like it chased stocks, today.