|Yes prices have reset higher in much of the country due to ZIRP the past year seeing upwards of 15-25% appreciation which creates even more problems when rates normalize. |
I am thinking extend and pretend especially with mortgages on residential so sideways to down for years to come..NYC so much inventory plus drop in population and revenues a wild card. Looking at quick numbers say 15M not paying rent or mortgage times $1500 month is peanuts to avoid another 2008 crisis for now. Whoever is in power won't let that happen again I imagine. Also most every smart person I know who has been around the block thinks a big downturn is inevitable next year.. You know what happens when everybody is thinking the same think..
Looking at months of inventory, fixed mortgage rates, yield curve, homebuilder charts and regional banking ETF's charts for clues looking out 12 months. Nothing signals a downturn YET.
Commercial RE another story. Can't see how we avoid another 1989-93 severe cramdown in asset prices and debt repositioning certain assets to highest and best current use IMHO
Thanks for all your input. Strange times