My End Of Year Review of GERN
INTRO Here's my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
Geron
GERN (market cap is $0.494B was $0.677B)
Geron is a biotech directed to gerontology issues. Originally they were pursuing several technologies but over the decades they've had to sell them off to financially sustain the remainder of the company. Currently, the prime technology is directed at telomere management, particularly for blood disorders. If successful, the technology should be applicable to other disorders like autoimmune diseases as well as cancers.
The good news is that the company has made it to Phase 3. A hurdle ahead of them is the FDA's tendency to require additional efforts from innovative technologies. (See Dendreon's history with Provenge for prostate cancer.) Their current trial plan may suffice. Their current trial plan still requires years of effort, then the approval process, then implementation, then adoption by the medical community, then hopefully getting paid sufficiently to make the company profitable. Hence, high risk. The ability to expand to other treatments is also the potential for high reward financially and in a humane sense.
I continue to hold, but have sold off most of my shares to concentrate on more near-term opportunities. I haven't sold off all, though, as I feel clinical trial news can be surprisingly positive without warning and the investment community's response can be more rapid than mine.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 1999 and continuing to hold. I might consider buying more, but will probably wait for substantial, quantitative results to be made public - which would spark a spike that might price me out of the sale. Stay tuned.
(I've also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog trimbathcreative.net ) |
