Put together for Western forest however, Relative to most investments in similar manner Speculation further behind It looks like a two year program prior to decent recovery. which may well have demand lessening effects on many raw resource requirements. Don't need supplies to manufacture what there is no market for.
They can say go back to work but they cannot force people to or force them to make purchases creating necessary demand. People who are uncertain and afraid do not take on long term commitments, No one actually knows when this is going to be over.
Governors of many states and premiers in Canada plus some of the regional managers in Europe have declined the option of opening the area which they are responsible for. Western Granted has some variation from the normal operating mill facilities. However here to the company is subject to the Macro conditions which will still carry a dominating effect. The only real thing which will mitigate the down holding pressure. Will be the availability of test clarifying whether or not, you and the person working next to you, or the people you are serving, or serving you are not infected or, have recovered and now safe with antibody protection so as not to transmit the virus to others.
China attempted to reopen a small sector. Resulting in some new cases being revealed on the forefront within days. The test waited upon is on the horizon potentially developed. Yet Not in hand quantity large enough to have any significant effect. allowing people back in a safe working environment.
Companies cannot reopen in profit if only Half or 70% of their workforce returns. While others who have reserve capital of their own choose not to . operating base costs are the same, production volume vastly reduced. and profit survival line destroyed ending in bankruptcies not only for the corporation itself. Also the residual businesses who depend on it. Corporations either make a profit or go out of business leaving workers totally on the breadline with no future employment to return to. is that better than a short wait projected at present under present modelling and strategies being employed ?
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This is a report on forest corporation market condition at present looking forward. what happens currently affects 3 to 6 months out sales Permitting development fore shadows supply demand at least 90 days in major builders like & similar to TOLL BROTHERS it may precede construction activity by 9 months
NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) is based on a monthly survey of home builders. They are asked to rate current sales of single-family homes and sales expectations for the next six months and to rate traffic of prospective buyers. Scores for responses to each component are used to calculate a seasonally adjusted overall index, where a number over 50 indicates more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.
The NAHB housing market index in the US tumbled to 30 in April 2020, the lowest since June 2012 and well below market forecasts of 55. The current single-family sub-index declined to 36 from 79 in March; the sub-index for home sales for the next six months dropped to 36 from 75; and prospective buyers also went down to 13 from 56.
Mortgage Applications in the United States is expected to be down to 1.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Mortgage Applications in the United States to stand even lower at 0.90 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the United States MBA Mortgage Applications is projected to trend around 0.90 percent in 2021, according to our econometric models.
The advantage Western has over it's peers in it's make up is still not an advantage if housing markets are not robust. comets previously made by Dos had some very valid points. Applications to remain near .90% till 2021 corresponds with a vaccine being available ending the crises.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------To me reading the above reports I copy and pasted suggest Western and other lumber manufacturers as a longer term hold. Even without other unforeseen adverse conditions presenting themselves.
Thought the info may be of some value. other statistical reports and projections like this are available on various sectors and commodities including mineral demands going forward by subscription. I like some because they are first hand not spun or edited for spin in CEO reports to benefit their corporation I have witnessed in some cases |
