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Strategies & Market Trends : Speculating in Takeover Targets
CTG 10.48+0.1%Dec 6 3:51 PM EST

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To: richardred who wrote (5757)1/1/2020 3:39:51 PM
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2019 SITT year in review

After a dismal and humbling December 2018 which took the portfolio down 16.8%. This after being up 10% in November . I held on. The Dow's 1000 point gain just after Christmas seemed to get the ball rolling for next year. For myself, 2019 started off on the recovery path. In Feb. the first takeover hit outside the 2019 SITT Top Ten list.. SFS Smart & Final received a PE offer that was accepted.
One successful 2019 Top Ten hit this past year. #10 ASV . It was a biggie for myself. I nearly choked on my coffee when I looked at the portfolio screen in the morning. I had to make sure it wasn't a mistake. I saw the TO news to verify. Turns out ASV was my biggest TO percentage gain (300%+) of all time, and third biggest gain in 30+ years of investing. It was a cash deal to boot. All I could think about was the Nancy Sinatra - Up, Up And Away song. This year I thought about it, but I did no options trading I can remember. I however did more common stock trading than ever before. Swing and or position trading. Portfolio Gain for the year 45% or a little higher. I think I can comfortably say it. This as my return hasn't been updated since Nov. 30.

Biggest realized loss taken this year- ACET- Aceto Chemical went bankrupt. I held shares because I thought the assets could be sold & liquidated for more than the price I bought. This turned out not to be the case. Trading it for a profit earlier a few times helped eased the pain. To be sure their are more unrealized losses in my portfolio. I haven't been to the point where I've lost confidence in those positions as of yet. Many of the wise would say, sell take your losses and move on. Which I do many times in lost confidence. For myself it also helps having unrealized gains that are bigger than those losses. IMO that buys more time for recovery potential or other potential catalysts.

Biggest realized gains of the year
were weighted positions in ASV & HBIO & JVA
Trading gains in many stocks to numerous to mention all. A positive market helps in trading. IMO A bad market creates the best time to look for opportunities. However establishing or holding on to weighted comfortable long positions is essential in my strategy. I have no defined set rules, but think risk/reward with balancing in mind.

Biggest Surprises this year - The number of take unders or low percentage Takeout premiums this year (My observation) mostly smaller independents in the oil patch). The price BYND Beyond Meat reached upon it's IPO. The Stock price recovery of Tesla.

Portfolio Cash position currently about 17%. Once again I don't know what the new year brings. From current market conditions I do like to guess as many do, what will happen. However I am a Individual Investor Stock picker and not a market prognosticator or market technician. I sure do like to listen or hear opinions of what everybody has to say though. Many prominent stock prognosticators were wrong about this past year. Many changed their tuned or digressed. I have to give SI's Chief/Don credit where credit was do.

GITY- Good investing to you for those who decide to accept your own investing mission in 2020 . This whether it be Individually, through a Mutual fund, 401K, ect. I do what I do at SI because I'm passionate about Investing as well as tying to make money. I'm Sometimes to passionate I guess. So for that (mistakes) the key word for me(ADJUSTMENT)to market conditions or portfolio conditions. Been investing since an early age teaching myself and watching and learning from the Market Masters of now and times gone bye.


On a more cheerful note than Last Years Hold On Theme- This years Investing Theme is Heavy Action . One thing I do know for sure there will be some heavy action in the Markets this Year. I'm Thinking Positive with the boy scout theme-(Always Be Prepared).
I sure hope the 2020 market theme doesn't turn out to be Take the Money and Run (Steve Miller Band).

Heavy Action by Johnny Pearson

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