|I can't see a takeover before the ASCENT data is available (perhaps before being made public, on a confidential basis to a company interested in acquiring IMMU). |
I held the stock in case a takeover happened shortly after the CRL. But at this point, I think the window has closed making a takeover rumor not credible.
It takes several quarters to close a deal and by the time the deal closes (if one happened today), the ASCENT data will be available (or close to it), No company is going to risk paying up if there's a chance it could blow up in their face within a few weeks of closing the deal!! No management team wants to risk that embarrassment, even if the risks are small.
I wonder if the run-up is short squeeze related. Maybe folks piled into short positions expecting DS to knock it out of the park and see IMMU tank as a result. When that didn't happen, a whole bunch of covering took place.
To me, IMMU's share price anywhere between $12 and $18 makes sense. Below about $12 and there's simply too much discounting 132's upside. Over $18 and there's too much discounting execution risk. At $16+, where we are at the moment, we're still very much in the middle of the range.