Elephants Dancing to Trump's Tune... in The China(s) Trade(s)
1. Go gold or... don't go...
Dalio goes all Gold Bug on us... but just can't quite bring himself to actually say it...
Schiff: The Only Winners Will Be The People Who Bought Gold And Silver
2. China's Endless Summer Vacation... China mimes out Clark Griswold's new idea: "There’s a cruise, there’s a fire on the ship, we think the whole ship’s on fire and we jump—it’s just a little fire—and we end up on an island where we meet Randy [Quaid] somewhere who’s been left there from an old Survivor series."
Hong Kong Tourism Plunges 40%, Most Since 2003 SARS Outbreak
"A Boom In Reverse": Southeast Asia's Beaches Empty Out Amid Slump In Chinese Tourism
Of course, some will vacation harder than others:
Ma, No More: Kyle Bass Fears Alibaba Boss Will Be "Jailed, Disappeared" Within Next Year
China Vows To 'Crush' Pro-Democracy Separatists; Hong Kong Warns Against Foreign Influence
3. We can pretend its not happening...
US Futures Drift Higher On Chinese Invitation To Bagholders, Trade And Central Bank Optimism
Stocks Pump'n'Dump On Old News That China Will "Sweeten" Trade Deal By Buying More US Ag Products
Say, about that last one... "China buying more ag products"... haven't I heard that one before, somewhere ?
4. Turnabout is Fair Play: And Other Hard Lessons For Spoiled Children
China's Xi: President Trump Can't Believe What I Say
If it were me advising Trump... I'd have him announce a suspension in the China trade talks to enable clearing the air... provide a checklist of items that need to be dealt with FIRST before any resumption... with a resumption to occur just as soon as the two parties have each demonstrated good faith, as is necessary to restoring the ability of each to trust the other, by each showing they are fully complying with all their prior promises already made... you know, like China complying with the promises they made to gain admission to the WTO...
That never happened, and it is still not happening... with China still expecting they will get away with taking advantage of the system of global trade by flouting the rules, fully expecting they will instead change the rules they agreed to rather than comply with them. ? That defines the reason that Trump, eventually, will have to end all trade with China... while also pulling the plug on our now 40 year long subsidization of China's "miracle"... which has been entirely funded by the U.S.... and is still funded by the U.S.... but will not be for much longer. Why, exactly, does the U.S. STILL pay the costs of the postage for shipping products from China to American consumers ?
In any case, Moe now joins Curly, Larry and China on the belated summer vacation... sells and goes away...
'Quant Quake 2.0' Fallout: Nomura Warns Of "Horrific" Returns For Momo Stocks Ahead
Quant Quake Goes Global Amid Momo Meltdown, Bond Bloodbath
What's left in the market is mostly a game of Musical Chairs:
Something Big Is Taking Place Below The Market's Surface
4. The Window of Opportunity is Now Closed. China blinks, once... already too little, too late...
Doing what Trump demands.... while making it look like it was our idea ?
Note the similarity in the effect of changing a policy... after it doesn't matter... to pushing on a string ?
China Scraps Foreign Investment Limits For Stock, Bond Markets... But Does Anyone Care
5. And then, speaking of over-playing your hand, in a fit of pique, while more greatly misunderestimating Trump than before... China threatens to teach the U.S. a lesson by shutting down their own oil supply:
Iran Will Be A Full Nuclear Power By End Of 2020: Report
China has signed a long term agreement to buy large quantities of Iranian oil in defiance of US sanctions
China has thus irrevocably tied together the resolution of separate multiple conflicts with the U.S., in trade and in other spheres... to the singular outcomes in non-proliferation (North Korea, Iran) , and now to the singular timelines on which events in the Arabian Gulf will play out. China is hiding behind Iran's skirts while "defying" Washington's rules for maintaining a free market focused global order... an highly successful and orderly system which China MORE fully depends upon than anyone else... thus leaving the only possible outcome in the near term as significantly expanded disorder...
6. So, how bad could things get... and what are the drivers of... Timing ?
What about the American left, the timing and potential in the next election, and the " Third Wave" function converted into a path once taken towards advancing globalist socialist goals as the " Third Way" ? The melding of the "benefits" of socialism and with those of capitalism... rather than working as "socialism lite"... is a policy that ensures an end result in becoming National Socialism. That's what we see in China today. American policy vis a vis China the last half century... has merely re-invented Nazi Germany... only this time in Asia, and with 1.43 billion people. Socialism, being inherently totalitarian... as shown by history at its origins... either leads to communism... or to national socialism. Does no one remember the origins of WW II ? Nazi's were not and are not right wingers... but are the "pro-industrial" branch of socialism... none of the evils of which are mitigated by imposing Nazi-led globalist governance on us. The American left... have wrongly expected a third path would fully enable them in a success won by sowing seeds that would work to undermine the U.S. from within... in a Vietnam War style redux of radicalism... fostering voluntary surrender to "globalism" as an anodyne alternative to being conquered by Hitler ? Good luck with that.
Antifa's efforts don't exactly seem to be carrying the day... while the prior election gives no reason to expect the next election will be less, rather than a whole lot more, of what we have now... with a Trump landslide... only with that still admittedly depending on the timing in events... that clearly ARE going to happen, whatever else it is that occurs from here in politics. And, Trump controls the timing.
If there is a recession in the U.S., the pace of events will only accelerate and escape Trump's control... and then there is going to be a war sooner rather than later... and it will be a real war, not the hobby wars that have been postured over the last few years in serial efforts, but failed attempts, to sap the American military's power...
Anyone still expecting (or believing it was random that) that the Bush/Clinton/Obama foreign policy... (which subsidized China and gave China a free hand, while it imposed a series of deliberately corrosive policies for America)... is going to work ? Anyone still expecting that... hasn't been paying attention.
The Clinton - China - Leftwing Tech Company linkages ARE still intact... for now...
Thanks To Tech Totalitarians, US Already Has A China-Style "Social Credit System"
Big Tech & Big Brother Are Going To Join Forces To "Secure Elections"
But, expect a very short half-life... while noting the unintended counter-punchline in this article defining one aspect of the Clinton/Obama wartime legacy: "Counter-productivity seems the essence of U.S. military policy in Uncle Sam’s never-ending, post-9/11 wars. Call me crazy, or wildly conspiratorial, but after serving in two hopelessly absurd wars and studying the full scope of American military action, it seems that maybe that was the idea all along."
Clocks are ticking on the unwinding of these events... including in the election interference in the last cycles... as we close in on the media driven expectations for the next cycle... ? Trump cards in hand... Trump bides his time.
Tying those loose ends together...
FBI Given Evidence Of Clinton-Linked Libya Scheme; Instead Launched Trump-Russia Quagmire
CIA Crushes CNN's Latest Trump-Russia Conspiracy Theory
Broken Clocks... are still exactly right twice a day...
Trump Fires John Bolton After "Disagreeing Strongly With His Suggestions"
Enough for today... |
