Elephants in the room... a summary.
I'm going to be trying to address a number of new... separate... macro issues in the markets here over the next few weeks... in addition to continuing my coverage of the investment related interest I've sustained over the last couple of years... which, unfortunately, are easily boiled down to 1.) shorting the market just before bad days... with a couple of trades per year at most... and 2.) triangulating desirable future positions while waiting for the bottom in gold and silver shares.... otherwise waiting for bubbles to pop.
Old News:
We're still at the front side of the coming waves in a storm that will be driving a series of generational changes... changes that are inevitably coming... but, before the waves arrive, before they get close enough to shore to begin piling up on the beach in a way that makes them safely surfable... prudence requires seeking safety both in and from the potential for economic violence in the big waters during a storm. Get out of the water and away from the beach to a high enough elevation... or go below the near surface zones where wave action matters... or be the storm... to be on the right side of the trade.
Current inputs are:
1. Short the market... just before really bad days in stocks... and cash out your chips promptly.
2. Avoid the markets... get out of anything held in street name before your broker goes broker than you.
3. Cash held in a bank... is the banks cash, not yours... just as 1. and 2. above... cash out your chips.
4. Own gold and silver, and gold and silver shares directly... never anything in the form of an ETF.
5. When the casino is giving you free chips to play... how does that change their market dynamic ?
6. Be entirely debt free. No personal debt... and no attachments of assets in business, borrowing or lending.
7. Be well positioned to avoid risk, and conflict... to hunker down and wait it out... don't be a target.
For now, I choose to continue to be a non-participant in the markets, including in opting to not play the short ETF's... given the manipulations continue to amplify even short term generic holding risks. The exception is in having recently made the call on the bottom in gold and silver shares back in April and May... with the exception to the exception being in a couple of other mining related interests as special situations... rare earths, copper/gold, and tungsten...
Silver's parabolic rise in the last week... wholly inconsistent with the recent trends... smacks of renewed banker intervention, the overly obvious in the inducement into excess being the primary tool bankers apply in foreshortening and thus preventing an advance while seeking to re-enable a reversal from a "blow off top"... that, in fact, is merely "peaking" at the bottom that has been being put in over the last five years. Silver at $18 is silver back down to the base circa 2010. For whatever reason, it appears more clearly now that the bankers have a major pressure point / pain problem that begins at $18 - $20... ie., that's the point where the price becomes relevant... when they'd prefer it never be relevant.
I'd typically call the last two week's "run-up" easily trade-able... if you wanted to trade... but, I still don't have any interest in trading for now... and see no reason to alter positions in a larger winning strategy based on the oppositions choices of predictable tactics. I will accept that the reversals in the markets that are occurring now, or will be soon, will tend to generate parallel opposites in trading pairs... What I mean by that in context is, a market mantra in something like BTFD... which has worked for stocks for some time in the asset bubble in opposition to trades in the PM space... is increasingly likely to work now, instead, and from here, as a mantra that works as BTFD in the PM space.
I will continue to recognize that there is massive, massive risk built into in the banking sectors... which includes that keeping holdings in street name is a huge gamble... with the value of holdings almost fully dependent on the sustained solvency of the banks... as we proceed to cruise closer over time to the circling flock of black swans... which have us closer now than we've been since 2008... while each of the birds and the number in the flock is vastly larger.
Stocks are long in the tooth... banks are long in the tooth... the entire market function is long in the tooth. Avoid what risks you can.
Recession risks... are massive... but, also, still massively larger outside the U.S. than inside...
New News:
Wait for it.
We're at a generational transition point in the markets. Massive changes are lining up, have been for a while, but the innovators haven't yet been enabled with the green lights aligning for them... as the red lights that prevent changes, those red lights that exist to control traffic in ways that benefit the monopolies who are currently the market leaders... the dinosaurs that we're saddled... those red lights will continue to blaze and advantage the monopolies... until they are removed (Trumped ?) by a force driving changes they oppose.
I'll title the new forward looking interests as:
1. The China(s) Trade(s)...
2. Asset Bubbles / Real Estate Bubbles. Go long soap solutions... or mops and bandages ?
3. Banking Bubbles and Fizzy Money. Paradigm Shifts... and old birds coming home to roost.
4. Rockets and Robotics and AI. Oh, my...
5. Antisocial Insecurity
6. Drums.
7. Synergies.
Don't know that I'll get around to writing the new market manifesto for 2020 anytime soon... but will try to keep up a flow of postings that will address the categories of interest... some of which I might get around to explaining, or not. |
