SAN JOSE, Calif. — Chief executives of Arm, Micron, and Xilinx gave diverging views on the outlook for Moore’s Law but shared enthusiasm for the future of semiconductors in a panel hosted by the Churchill Club here.
Moore’s Law has run out of gas, “and that is profound,” said Victor Peng, CEO of Xilinx, pointing to the rising costs of increasing performance and reducing power and area of chips.
“You can get one of the three, it’s hard to get two of three, and I would challenge anyone who says they can get three of the three,” he said. Today’s extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems only remove the complexity of multi-patterning today’s chips, the 7-5-3-nm names of the latest nodes “are all marketing numbers, and no one has fixed the interconnect problem.”
Arm chief executive Simon Segars generally agreed. “The cost of designing a 5-nm chip will be astronomical,” limiting the node’s use to a few companies who “can amortize it across multiple designs. Because of the constraints of Moore’s Law, you have to work harder — there’s no freebie in optical scaling anymore.”
IMHO, this again points out AMD's wise design decisions, in that they do just the compute chiplet on the advanced node, and that single die is used across all the product SKUs.