|If those new supply chains come back to the U.S. as a result of new high tech manufacturing, then U.S. and consumers are the winners.|
Just look what US did w/ domestic shale oil and NG development. The US now is the leader in worldwide production just 10 years ago it was the Saudi's. The world trade is dynamic and always changing. Tariff's make those changes get done faster (via the implied tax) and typically to the benefit of the Country imposing those tariffs (look at Japan and the EU w/ their auto tariffs).
There will always be disruption in the markets. I personally see a Next Generation smart AI assisted manufacturing as the disruptive technology. Think of large scale 3D-printing and AI assisted automation. This is now being done at the new MN plant for AGCO. They use AI assisted software in their flexible custom tractor assembly. They still have workers but are much more efficient as tools, JIT inventory (delivered by automated robots), testing is all done by computer/robots and guided by the human assistant. Final tests are done by computer and they even fill all liquids (oil & lubricants), air etc by AI/computer machines.
Much of those tractors produced in MN are shipped into Europe & Germany (even w/ tariffs and farmers still buy those products).
The one thing you can not change really are the costs related to logistics/transportation delivered to the final end user. You cut those costs by manufacturing/assembly at the closest delivery point to the end user.
Now think ahead . . . what if you had super efficient automated AI manufacturing (using next generation 3D printing) located in facilities at/near each Amazon distribution center. Remember, all those 3D-printers are still linked to some intelligent network updated in the cloud.
There is no need to build/assemble in China and then ship across the world back to the U.S..
It's all changing and markets may/can create companies to change based on efficiencies and/or Governments can motivate that change by using taxes and tariffs (think of the proposed carbon tax).
Just like US shipping our recycling to China. China takes that cardboard and makes boxes that is shipped back to the U.S. and used by Amazon to deliver products to local customers. We really need to tax that recycling stream so it is recycled at the local level (that's like a tariff).
The EU has been using tariffs to promote local manufacturing for years (as has Japan).
I am very excited about the future of very smart AI/robotic manufacturing and the sooner the U.S. promotes & installs this inside the U.S. (for US consumers), the better the U.S. will be at exporting these technology manufacturing systems to other countries (remember manufactured products must be close to the end consumer).
The key for investors is (1) to recognize the disruptive changes and (2) to invest in those companies providing solutions. The US has many of those companies and the best engineers in the World to effect this change.
I love the US for that and we really need to make huge investments in our Human Capital (get rid of student debt). Maybe Congress/Senate can do a multi Trillion deal that promotes investment in our Human Capital so we can stay the leader in this AI/Manufacturing change.
"Give us a protective tariff and we will have the greatest nation on earth." Abraham Lincoln
"Experience has taught me that manufactures are now as necessary to our independence as to our comfort" Thomas Jefferson