|Oh, I'm sorry, there likely will be some potential winners in the China/Trump trade wars: Argentina and Brazil stand to sell a lot more grain... South Korea and Taiwan are selling more electronics and making more of them as trading these between China and the US is falling... Vietnam is already "stealing" from both China and the US a lot of the sort of stuff that major international companies need doing or making... forget cars and trucks, Mexico is the 2nd largest exporter of computer gear to China and the US (as they trade less and less of that stuff themselves)...|
Finally, I find this quote quite illuminating on the topic:
"Shifting supply chains is costly, and businesses try to avoid it. Many analysts predict that once new supply chains form they will tend to stick around, even if the U.S.-China dispute cools. Trade-war winners could enjoy long-term gains even after a truce.
Of course, counting on any such gains is risky. A trade war that torpedoes global growth or leads to a recession in the United States would likely sink all boats."
The one thing a majority of all political parties and macro-economists overwhelmingly agree on is that capitalism and world economies (including China and the US) work best when all or almost all global trade is free -- i.e., free trade is the lynchpin of capitalism and most developed nations' GDP.
OPEC was not a trade war... it was what we'd call an economic sanction, just like oil out of Iran. Note that OPEC was not "fighting" against any single nation, but the entire global GDP (and arguably themselves). In the end, OPEC became irrelevant and in that sense, they lost their war on the rest of the world -- many of its members are in economic shambles now and even the Saudis have lost bazillions as they supplement former energy sales income with cash from their sovereign funds...
Even when Big Dog was around sporadically, I doubt he ever mentioned "egregious and often off topic political postings" more than once a year when many of us would PM to police the board -- perhaps this board has outlived its usefulness if the only way to spark discussion and posts is to discuss these sorts of things... esp., considering Big Dog's last post here was to the effect he was moving on in life and leaving this board behind.