|Don't bother reading if you only want positive spins|
Thanks for the recap of the meeting. Things might be different, yet again, but not from anything I've heard.
>>1) Company is very upbeat and moving forward quickly, in an expansive way. Post Gauzy RFI, vs Hitachi alone RFI, are totally different companies in terms of the outlook. The past is now the past.
Sort of like when JH said now they don't just have a Ferrari but now they have a Ferrari with an engine. I was at that meeting. I forget how long ago that was - over 15 years.
>>2) 20 vehicles with SPD expected in the next 18 months mostly coming in 2020. This includes the 5 MB’s, 4 McLarens and 2 Rivians that we know about (the Rivians haven’t been confirmed by RFI(although we know for sure)). So 9 more--some of which possibly won’t make it.
Just last month, I wrote that the 19 models were already accounted for in the 10K. And a couple pumpers here jumped on me saying that JH meant 'NEW' models. If something JH says can be taken as a positive or a negative - it's a safe bet that to take it the most negative way.
>>3) After 2020, the number of models just keeps going up.
Let's see them hit just one target before moving on to the next.
>>4) Joe clarified that there is a model coming next year with higher volumes even than the W223(that’s the new model S class). Figure the W223 is 80-120k vehicles across all model variants, so you get a big number. There aren’t that many models that do 100k+ units, so it’s getting pretty mainstream at that point. Joe said that model will dwarf all the SPD used currently across all industries.
See my post earlier to today about the use of the word 'dwarf'.
>>6) Joe is not concerned that the EQ’s (That’s Mercedes upcoming EV line) thus far have not mentioned SPD.
Did you really expect for JH to say that it will not have SPD unless it was in plain sight?
>>8) OEMs need about a year these days to be comfortable with SPD
Considering that JH has been saying that all the major OEMs have been working with SPD for years, this seems to be a step backward.
>>10) Panasonics/NSG gen 2.0 is projector free, so figure lcd/oled/ plasma whatever display tech you want will marry to SPD layer as a backlight blocker, rather than as a glare attenuator.
This has me more interested than auto, at the moment. RFI needs a few years of doubling revenues. I don't see that coming from auto for a while.
>>11) Mike LaPointe is handling the front end of VariGaurd while Seth VV is increasingly focused on CFO function. They’re working on an off the shelf kind of Variguard product for the Xmen 1 kind of collector(rather than the Action comic 1 kind of collector) . They have a low cost laminator set up, so that seems like the big issues the rest is commodity stuff, like frames and mats. Seth said the distribution channel is TBD, but it sounds like it is coming quickly. The really high end Museums, Action comics 1, picasso’s on yachts, remains bespoke.
When I spoke with a BOD member years ago about Variguard, he basically agreed with me that he doesn't see revenue from Variguard as important but it is worthwhile for the contacts they make showing it. Variguard will never produce enough revenue to warrant the salaries and $ they spend on it. This is all a distraction.
>>... REFR with 1.5 million in sales, representing 10- 15 million in revenues for the SPD industry should be worth something like 400 million or $13/share right now.
REFR will never have the inflated PE to justify that kind of price until they show huge sales GROWTH - qtr over qtr, year over year.