|For me the big take aways from the am are: |
1) Company is very upbeat and moving forward quickly, in an expansive way. Post Gauzy RFI, vs Hitachi alone RFI, are totally different companies in terms of the outlook. The past is now the past.
2) 20 vehicles with SPD expected in the next 18 months mostly coming in 2020. This includes the 5 MB’s, 4 McLarens and 2 Rivians that we know about (the Rivians haven’t been confirmed by RFI(although we know for sure)). So 9 more--some of which possibly won’t make it.
3) After 2020, the number of models just keeps going up.
4) Joe clarified that there is a model coming next year with higher volumes even than the W223(that’s the new model S class). Figure the W223 is 80-120k vehicles across all model variants, so you get a big number. There aren’t that many models that do 100k+ units, so it’s getting pretty mainstream at that point. Joe said that model will dwarf all the SPD used currently across all industries.
5) Joe expects the w223 to use SPD. Given MB’s consolidation of stand-alone options,(my guess) it makes sense that MSC will be part of a package finally, so expect much higher volumes of the on the w223 S class
6) Joe is not concerned that the EQ’s (That’s Mercedes upcoming EV line) thus far have not mentioned SPD.
7) Not sure if it’s part of the 20, but Joe said AGP had 15 very solid leads/project models
8) OEMs need about a year these days to be comfortable with SPD
9) Gauzy is customer focused in a way Hitachi was not, though may have to be on things like price, lead times, and warranty
10) Panasonics/NSG gen 2.0 is projector free, so figure lcd/oled/ plasma whatever display tech you want will marry to SPD layer as a backlight blocker, rather than as a glare attenuator.
11) Mike LaPointe is handling the front end of VariGaurd while Seth VV is increasingly focused on CFO function. They’re working on an off the shelf kind of Variguard product for the Xmen 1 kind of collector(rather than the Action comic 1 kind of collector) . They have a low cost laminator set up, so that seems like the big issues the rest is commodity stuff, like frames and mats. Seth said the distribution channel is TBD, but it sounds like it is coming quickly. The really high end Museums, Action comics 1, picasso’s on yachts, remains bespoke.
I left with a very positive sense. Basically, since 2010, when Hitachi got a commercial product, the proof of concepts has been proven and with Gauzy, they have a lower cost and customer focus that combined with a readier backdrop(see view, halio, gauzt etc) got the ducks in a row.
My own view is that Softbank really rang the bell on the timing . If you figure that they say View is worth 2 billion with 50 million in sales, then REFR with 1.5 million in sales, representing 10- 15 million in revenues for the SPD industry should be worth something like 400 million or $13/share right now. JMO, but I think justifiable. Bottom line is, that the pipeline is emerging, and where the sales are going to come from is in place.