|The current U.S./China clash is about telecom supremacy.|
The U.S. has decided that it needs to contain China, and its great comparative advantage is technology. They’re going to take Huawei down. That could really turn around and—excuse my French—bite you in the ass. If Apple can’t produce in China, or can’t sell what it produces in China back to the U.S., or if China starts blockading its product, you’ve destroyed one of your biggest companies. Samsung Electronics [5930.Korea] will pick up the pieces. Technology is one of the biggest parts of the U.S. stock market. U.S. investors are as exposed to U.S. stocks as they were in 1999. The big difference between then and today is that the average U.S. investor is much older. When you’re 30 years old, a bear market gives you the opportunity to buy more stocks cheaply. When you’re 65, it is more problematic. There will be casualties in tech at a time when you can’t really afford a bear market. I like to make the comparison with the Battle of Agincourt, where the French had five times as many troops as the English and were so sure of our superiority, and the English slaughtered us.