|Agree. China will not do "a deal", compromise or show any flexibility, let alone cave. They're an "Insular (aka Continental) Power". For centuries, historians have emphasized Continental Powers are inflexible compared to Island Nations or Island based empires such as the UK or Japan. So....|
1. Unless Trump caves, almost entirely? Global economic conditions will worsen rapidly from here.
2. Unless Trump caves? A recession, perhaps a severe one, becomes very likely just before the 2020 election. Everybody knows how that plays out.
He will cave, period! And, of course, claim victory. Hey folks not being partisan. This is economics 101 "straight up".
Though now exactly the same as the infamous Smooth Haley Tariff? This huge strategic blunder is close enough to for me to usurp poetic license by abeling it Smooth Haley 2.0.
Trump will cave by early next year, at the latest.
All IMHO, of course.<g>