|Strange article. I didn't think NAND flash prices were ever supposed to "rebound". I think the generally either decline slowly (good for NAND makers) or decline quickly (bad for NAND makers). Price increases, or "rebounds" (as we saw in the transition from 2D to 3D flash) are super ucommmon.|
NAND flash prices to continue downward trend
Siu Han, Taipei; Jessie Shen, DIGITIMES
Tuesday 7 May 2019
NAND flash prices are showing no signs of rebounding despite optimism about demand recovery in the second half of 2019, according to industry sources.
The sources noted it is generally believed that NAND flash demand for smartphones will be picking up substantially in the second half of 2019. A recovery is also expected to take place in the server and datacenter market in the latter part of this year, playing another catalyst for the memory market growth, the sources continued.
Nevertheless, NAND flash memory prices are expected to continue trending down in the second half of 2019, the sources warned. The prices have already approached cash costs for many manufacturers, but remain under downward pressure, the sources indicated.
This is also hard to believe. Prices may have approached cash costs for NAND produced 9 months ago, but I don't think prices for NAND manufactured today are at cash cost today. The problem is the NAND makers all have lots of old inventory sitting on their balanace sheets.
Global trade conditions are still unfavorable to end-market demand, said the sources, adding that demand from datacenter vendors has also not seen a substantial pick-up. Near-term demand visibility is limited.
NAND flash prices could stop falling in the second half of 2019 if demand from US datacenter vendors pulls in between the latter half of June and July, the sources suggested.
NAND flash prices will continue falling but at a slower pace in the second half of 2019, according to Wallace Kou, president and CEO of Silicon Motion Technology. Falls in the memory prices are expected to narrow to single digits, said Kou.