|I have been away for a while, partially because I took a bit of a vacation during the correction to the market and partially because there was really not much to say about Theralase stock|
The good news is the Phase 1 trials are moving forward finally with a 5th and 6th patient has been enrolled and treated.
This says to me that the problems with inflammation and reoccurrence of the tumours which are treatable caused the team to give sober thought to what they were doing. These problems have nothing to do with the goals of Phase 1 testing... they have already demonstrated the safety of the procedure, the tolerance of the doseage and some efficacy but to continue to treat at the higher dose and get the problems of inflammation of candidate 3 over and over again does not make sense to me.
However, the treatment of 2 more candidates NOW indicates to me they think they have a solution to the problems and are applying their solution to 2 more candidates... this is positive news to me.
Anyone who thought this treatment was a slam dunk and that Theralase should be actively seeking Big Pharma, were dreaming in technicolor. Just because rat tests were so positive does not mean the procedure should work flawlessly in humans. That is why fast-tracking the testing at this point is not in the cards... Phase 1 testing alone will go on for at least another year IMHO.
Ok, I got that out of my system, let's look at the status of the share price since the additional candidates have been treated.
Here is my first 2 charts
Some people are shocked at the halting of the share price rise of late. I am not...
Look at the P&F chart... the share price ran into a pretty well established resistance at $0.25. This resistance is defined by 4 points and this is pretty strong... it is no wonder that the share price rise that took place slowly over the month of Feb, stalled when it reached $0.25 Even if it passed that level it would have tough sledding until it passed $0.30.
The support for this price is a $0.22... it is currently up in the air as to how strong this will be... there is secondary support at $0.20 which is weaker.
The column Moving Averages (5 and 10 columns taken at their midpoints) are still far apart and the lower blue line does not show a reversal yet... so this is still mildly bearish despite that latest rise in price. The good news is that the distance in rows is showing a decline as shown by the numbers in this chart. So there is hope of a change of direction of the blue MA and crossing the red MA would be bullish... but I don't expect to see that until late March.
the Trigger chart to the right is interesting... this last rise was sort of head fake for an immediate breakout.
Starting with the Slow Sto, things looked rather bullish as it charged up to 80 but now it has reversed direction. It is still bullish by mildly bullish now as it could still go above 80 in the near future.
You can see I have added the signal line to the MACD... I do NOT use it to find buy/sell signals but rather I use it to give clues as to a potential reversal in the MACD... the MACD is bullish but only mildly bullish as it looks to me to be reversing direction but not a dramatic drop.
It is the BBwidth that shows the head fake.
See the rather muted response to the rise in price in Feb. There was no sudden rise in slope of the BBwidth... hence the rise and hitting the resistance says to me that it is not surprising it failed to breach that line.
Having said this in the main chart we see the price is bouncing off the top of the 50daySMA and the 20daySMA (dotted green) is arcing towards the 50daySMA and crossing it will be good.
Here are the next two charts
these two charts are very interesting
the sentiment chart on the left starting at the top circle
the Par Sar is bullish with its dotted red line far below the share price. This suggests that I don't expect a fall to the supports in the near term and it could mean a sign of continued bullish rise.
the Force (30) is neutral. It has been so for all of Feb... being zero and flat
The RSI(30) is neutral bearish as it is still under 50 but barely so and is relatively flat lately.
The ADX DI+/- is neutral... see how the red and green lines are twisted together... this is a sign of indecision
the chart to the right, the ichimoku chart is VERY revealing.
the upper circle shows that the share price has entered a red cloud. This is mildly bullish as it shows an attempt to get out from under these clouds. It will NOT be easy to move through this cloud as a red cloud is like molasses.
Another positive is the thin red/blue lines within that circle... the blue is rising nicely above the red one mildly bullish.
Also not the lower edge of the red cloud is now a support... and it is about $0.22 and if you look back to the P&F chart this confirms the support line I drew there.
The On Bal Vol is dead assed neutral
The CCI is currently bullish.
I go through this exercise to get a consensus of all the indications I see. Indicators often lie to us but they don't do so at the same time if you have a good selection of them.
BULLISH - 2
Mildly Bullish - 4
Neutral Bullish - 0
Neutral - 3
Neutral Bearish - 1
Mildly Bearish - 1
Bearish - 0
After cancelling opposites we get.
BULLISH - 2
Mildly Bullish - 3
Neutral Bullish - 0
Neutral - 2
Neutral Bearish - 0
Mildly Bearish - 0
Bearish - 0
In the short term things look reasonable for a slow rise in price to hopefully challenge the upper edge of the red cloud. I say slow rise because being in a red cloud things don't change fast.
If we make it out of this cloud then things will look very promising but until then we must be patient.