|My - long - EOY synopsis of MVIS|
MVIS (market cap is $0.128B was $0.152B Mid2017)
Here I go again, writing about MVIS. I’ve written about other stocks as much as I’ve written about MVIS, but far fewer folks follow them. MVIS is a story stock. It is easy to decide to see only what you want to see, good or bad. I try to present both sides.
MicroVision is a company based on a simple idea: an oscillating mirror tiny enough to fit on a chip. Reflecting incoming light can create a camera or a sensor. Reflecting beams of light can project an image. Being able to do so from a chip means sensors, cameras, and projectors can be made small, with small power requirements. Manufacturing a mirror on a chip has the fundamental advantage of not having to manufacture hundreds or thousands of miniature circuits for each pixel, as is true of most camera sensors and most projectors. The technology has progressed to commercialization, though not to the scale many anticipate - yet. The main products are projectors embedded in smartphones, and LiDAR sensors that may help auto autos see.
The potential is enormous and incredible (as in “in-” “credible” = “not” “believable”). Such is the nature of potentially disruptive technologies. For a glimpse at the upside, consider the cameras embedded in smartphones, tablets, laptops, and other devices. Add in sensors for the Internet of Things and autonomous vehicles, and the potential grows. I suspect there are other applications that haven’t been invented yet, but the surprising persistence of the robot assistant, RoBoHoN, is a suggestion of how hard it is to guess such trends.
The potential may be enormous, but the execution has not met expectations. Major partners have been slow to adopt the devices in quantity. Many of the products are being introduced in the lucrative but hard to research markets of China and India. (Note: the US has not been considered as a prime market, so US investors may not be the best judge of the implementations.) While revenues are increasing, they have yet to reach cash-flow positive and the company has been reluctant to provide estimates for profitability. A revenue estimate of $30M-$60M by the end of 2018 has not manifested and may be delayed. This may have something to do with the recent departure of the CEO (though it may be because he really does want to spend more time with his family.)
I continue to hold. My expectations have diminished dramatically because of an analysis of the dilution I conducted. While the company may finally succeed (a regular refrain for the last decade), the dilution means that a recovery in the market cap will not has as strong an effect on the share price relative to when I first bought the stock. I thought this would be a story stock that would have significant positive news in 2017. I think the same for 2018, but “hope” is a more appropriate description.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 1999 (though the very first shares are gone), and my patience is gone, yet my perseverance and majority of shares remain. I had more than enough if the company finally succeeds and the stock reaches the heights I think are possible, though dilution has decreased the potential, and the potential for a buyout may be increasing. I may buy and have bought more simply because the stock is so cheap.
(I've also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog trimbathcreative.wordpress.com. By chance and habit I have also written extensively about the company and the stock on my blog. trimbathcreative.wordpress.com