|Must have muted "majestic" because I don't see anything from such a poster. What did Sequans IR have to say?|
I signed out to see what was said, and did NOT see an analyst report or comments from IR posted by majestic. I saw some quotes from the CC transcript, which we already have access to, and copy and pastes from SI...
edit: found it
I can certainly address the spirit of your question, although I won't be able to give actual numbers because we aren't giving an exact breakout of our revenue between broadband and IoT and we gave a range in our guidance for Q4.
In contrast to the broadband business, the IoT business IS growing in the short term. Inherent in our recent Q4 guidance is an expectation that IoT revenue will indeed grow sequentially in Q4 from Q3 (when it was greater than your $1-$2M assumption), while broadband is expected to decline sequentially in Q4. At the same time, we would acknowledge that even at the high end of the guidance range, the IoT business will probably not reach a level that could be said to "approach" $10M exiting the year. We didn't discuss this in the context of being part of the revenue problem on our most recent call because there is no particular "problem" to explain -- it's just a question of timing.
The IoT business is developing very well, with enthusiastic Cat 1 customers moving as rapidly as they can to launch new devices. Meanwhile, in a given Cat 1 project, issues such as taking a couple of weeks longer to complete field trials, changing priorities for which operator's network to launch on first, or taking a bit longer to get access to the testing lab or complete module or device certification, can affect the exact launch date and, as a result, Sequans' revenue in a particular quarter . . . but it doesn't affect the ultimate success of the device or the demand.
So, the answer to your question is: the pace of progress in a few Cat 1 projects is slightly slower than the customers' original plan, but they ARE happening and there is no single "problem" that we need to explain and fix. Minor delays are typical of a nascent market, and we continue to expect the Cat 1 ramp to gain momentum during 2018 and the Cat M ramp to begin. We are being a bit cautious about making specific predictions for the Cat M ramp for the very reason you highlight -- i.e. it's very difficult to predict the pace of the ramp for a new product area, and we don't want to be in a situation at the end of 2018 where there is a perceived "problem" when, in fact, everything is moving very well with many encouraging signs as is currently the case with our Cat 1 IoT business.