|Hi Glenn, regarding Softbank selling at a discount to it's theoretical price if you could get top dollar paid on the entire 100 % of it's portfolio. |
That right there is the answer. Many companies and assets are very hard and sometimes impossible to
monetize. Look at all the Private Equity Unicorns, Uber, Lyft... there are a whole slew of them and it appears
that they may have had their peak theoretical public market price a year or more ago.
There is the quite often a huge bid ask spead between what you the bid for a business is and the asking price
of the owners of the business. That's why there is an entire industry of business deal brokers to try to bring
those huge bid ask spreads to a single agreed upon price.
With all of the talk about Netflix today...... Netflix was fully schematized and fully laid out as a working
viable business by Enron back in 1999 and 2000. Enron had correctly seen the huge future and
value of broadband communications they had some physical infrastructure, they were making a market
in forward, long dated pricing of broadband usage costs, they had a deal with Blockbuster to distribute
Had Enron had a New York investment banking division, they would have spun off their broadband movie
delivery over the internet business and in the Speculative mania, with accompanying massive price to sales
multiples that were 120 times revenues for Ariba, Commerce one and a number of businesses; Enron would
have raised $200 to $300 million or more for their IPO had it been offered in late 1999 or early 2000 and
Enron would still be in business.
That is something that no one in the business, government or even the techno -geek community seems to
understand..... No one has ever connected the dots..... other than me, to my knowledge.
The head of the Enron broadband division after several years of trial was found not guilty of all charges, as
by that point it was obvious to everyone that what they had put together was not a scam it was the future...
it is Netflix! I am friends with John Greene who ran the Profitable trading department within Enron
|To: macavity who wrote (5427)||2/11/2002 11:05:32 AM|
|From: John P|| Read Replies (1) of 20132|
|Hi Macavity, no question that a big Part of Enron's expansion strategy was to become a major market maker in bandwidth. The stock traded about 4 times as high as it ever should have due to the allure to investors that "broadband" and "internet" opportunities that were thought to be out there.|
As you can see in this very good article from the Journal
Enron had spreads of 20% on some of it's short term electricity contracts. Those are huge.
Beyond that Enron was making markets in bandwidth contracts where the ask was 8 times the bid. All kinds of accounting techniques can be used with such huge disparities in the numbers.
On most contracts for short-term deliveries of natural gas, bid-ask spreads are fairly small, about 1% or so. But even for some short-term electricity contract prices quoted on Enron's now-shuttered online trading portal, spreads of 20% were common. On contracts for short-term delivery of telecommunications bandwidth, Enron often posted "ask" prices that were as much as eight times the posted "bid" prices.
For other long-term derivatives, such as electricity contracts stretching 20 years or longer, market quotes don't exist. In such cases, companies are allowed to base contract valuations on their own undisclosed estimates, covering everything from future commodity prices to credit risks and discount rates.
Off Wall Street was opining that Enron's margins were deteriorating and that the company was worth much less in May of Last year.