|I would note that everything that you said was true in 2011. Samsung had spent billions on their Gen 5.5 fabs and was preparing for the launch of the Galaxy S3 which I believe was the best selling Galaxy handset of all time. Samsung is making far more on OLED's now but they are making less on handsets. |
Also, UDC's patent with the widest coverage still had over five years of life left. Despite that, UDC settled for a "no-downside" agreement.
How long can Samsung hold out not being able to sell phones and screens given all it's capital expenditure?
So we know for a fact that nobody in the industry, regardless of patents, can supply commercially viable emitters?
If yes, then UDC should raise the royalty rate substantially and go for a 6+ year license.
If no, then it becomes a balancing act with Samsung and UDC trying to figure out how much risk they are willing to take to get better terms.
I think it highly probable that Samsung will sign. However, IMO the idea that there is zero risk that this goes into litigation or even a one year agreement shows too much confidence into negotiations where we have little insight.