|Mega-layer NAND: “creating entirely new use cases which create additional demands”.........|
"I explained why I think it's likely that 2018 will end with shortages too"
This is exactly why the shills and "experts" are O'fer forever. The O'fer Static Model has never worked. And, the rate of change only increases. Geometrically. Not arithmetically.
Soon. Mega-layer, multi-channel SSS will be cheaper per GB & TB than 20th HDD. SSS already far superior on every other metric.
Enterprise has been going SSS on data centers because SSS has a lower TCO. For years. It's the loser laggards still using HDDs propping up units. Just like consumer PCs.
Think SSS, shrink and Fibre.
Insist on Cymer.
TrendForce says nand flash shortages may end in 2018
Editor:- September 27, 2017 - After 6 consecutive quarters of shortages in the nand flash memory market TrendForce today said it expects "supply and demand will reach a balance in 2018, moving away from the undersupply situation of 2017."
TrendForce anticipates that seasonal effects may result in NAND temporarily swinging from undersupply to oversupply in Q1 2018. But says the overall market trend for the whole 2018 is toward a stable equilibrium of supply and demand. The global NAND Flash bit supply growth rate is currently projected at 42.9%, while the bit demand growth rate is projected at 37.7%.
Editor's comments:- In 2017 the market learned that all the past assumptions about how long the memory industry takes to stabilize yields for new devices (and how those projections compare to initial characterization phases) were wrong due to nth layer tax in high rise 3D. The memoryfication of computing (big memory as the new normal) is also creating entirely new use cases which create additional demands on chips in a parallel course to SSD but which are semi-independent of storage's migration towards more solid state. So there are more memory demand factors at work - not just more demand from previously well understood trends.
I explained why I think it's likely that 2018 will end with shortages too in my recent blog - miscellaneous consequences of the 2017 memory shortages.