|My semi-annual review of MVIS - Mid 2017|
INTRO Here's my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
MVIS (market cap was $0.089B mid2016 is $0.083B EOY2016 is $0.152M Mid2017)
Of all the companies I describe, MicroVision is the one that gets the most practice. Ironically, it is also the one I am most hesitant to describe because too many have watched their investments languish and sometimes wither while waiting for its storied potential to become a headline success.
MicroVision is a company with a wide variety of possible products based on a simple technology: an oscillating mirror built into a chip. Shine lights on the chip and create a large display from a very tiny unit. Capture light and send it to sensors and create camera, LiDAR, or even something as simple as a bar code scanner. MicroVision's technology has the potential to disrupt the electronic industry the way flat panel displays changed old desktop monitors and console TVs. Just as the smartphone was made possible by a display technology, so too, may other devices that we can't imagine until pico-projections become ubiquitous. Currently, MicroVision technology has been included in pocket-sized portable projectors, smartphones, head up displays, and even a robot - though none of the products have reached high enough production quantities to confidently gain momentum. New and renewed concepts like LiDAR and eyewear are also feasible.
The greatness of MicroVision's potential is easy to underestimate, and yet, the company has under-performed for decades. The repeated comment has been, "Is this the year?". This may be the year. Or, maybe it's next year. That's been the case for so long that this may be the longest running example of "the boy who cried wolf", though with a different outcome.
As I described recently, the stock (MVIS) hasn't risen above $5 per share since its 1-for-8 reverse split five years ago. Without that split, the stock would be priced at less than $0.50. In the meantime, the stock has been diluted to keep the company alive. Dilutions have succeeded at keeping the company alive, though the share count has risen dramatically (about ten-fold every ten years.) (A Study In Dilution MVIS - trimbathcreative.wordpress.com
As I recall from the annual shareholders meeting (Corporations Meet Owners MVIS 2017 - trimbathcreative.wordpress.com, they received $10M in revenue in 2Q17; and have projected to receive $30M-$60M in the next 12-18 months (down to 9-15 months, now?). Those would be record quarters and would bring the company close to and possible into profitability. There's an investor consensus that there is insufficient news because either: consumer electronics are incredibly competitive, or management is insufficiently communicative, or some combination of factors. In the meantime, the investment community eagerly parses any bit of information, sometimes correctly, frequently incorrectly. It is quite possible that the company and the stock are under the control of customers even more than usual.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 1999 (though the very first shares are gone), and my patience is gone, yet my perseverance and majority of shares remain. I had more than enough if the company finally succeeds and the stock reaches the heights I think are possible, though dilution has decreased the potential, and the potential for a buyout may be increasing. I may buy and have bought more simply because the stock is so cheap.
(I've also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog trimbathcreative.wordpress.com. By chance and habit I have also written extensively about the company and the stock on my blog. trimbathcreative.wordpress.com