My semi-annual review of GERN - Mid 2017
INTRO Here's my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
Geron
GERN (market cap was $0.329B EOY2016 is $0.433B Mid2017)
Once upon a time, Geron was developing four major disruptive biotechnologies, all that had something to contribute to better and longer lives (Geron, as in gerontology). Now, they've sold off all (see Asterias for stem cell work) except one, telomerase. By properly controlling telomeres, the molecules that help regulate cell death, there is the potential to gain some control over diseases where cells don't die properly (cancer), or cells die too easily (auto-immune disorders.) Their prime clinical trials are aimed at treating hematological disorders (blood disorders).
The good news is that they've entered phase 2/3 clinical trials. Unfortunately, they've taken about two decades to get here, have experienced dilution, and haven't exceeded clinical expectations. With a market cap of close to half a billion dollars, any treatment will have to bring in great revenues to greatly increase the share price. Fortunately, even though hematological disorders don't make headlines (unless they're reworded), proof of the technology can suggest expanding into those other disorders mentioned above.
I don't expect the stock to move much until better and more conclusive clinical trial data elicits a more positive response within the investment community. Psychology plays a role in long term biotechs, especially in ones that have a long history of not meeting technological expectations.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 1999 and continuing to hold (though I sold much, partly for diversification, partly to raise funds.)
(I've also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog trimbathcreative.wordpress.com |
