|On June 1st, the S&P Futures began a multi-week formation (see image) that formed a Diamond Pattern. These diamond patterns are typically very reliable in signaling a pending reversal. Once price action breaks out of the pattern, you tend to get a price extreme made within 50% of the number of bars within the diamond itself, which was completed near this morning's open. These diamond patterns tend to produce very powerful reversals, which in this case implies a sizeable and very tradeable down move from this morning's high. |
Regarding Ewave counts, the expectations have been that the move up from the March '09 lows would be the Grand Supercycle Wave 5 in the series that began from the 1780's beginning of the American bull market. It would only be fitting that the greatest bull market in the history of the world would see its Wave 5 complete in an Ending Diagonal, which appears to indeed be the case. The abc zigzag wave 1 completed at the Spring of '15 highs, wave 2 at the Feb. '16 lows, and wave 3 appears to have just completed at this morning's highs. This multi-week diamond formation is the perfect road-sign for the end of this 3rd wave, and within the C portion of this ABC zigzag wave 3, wave 5 of C has also completed in an ending diagonal, with wave 1 finishing at the June 9th high, wave 2 ending at the 6/15 low, wave 3 ending at the 6/19 high, wave 4 ending at the 6/23 low, and wave 5 ending at this morning's high. Wave 5 didn't cross the line connecting wave 1 and wave 3, but in ending diagonals, it only must retrace 80% of the wave 4 decline, which it successfully did by 1 point on this am's rally. A break below 2430 on S&P futures will break the line connecting the wave 2 & 4 lows, unleashing the first significant down move in this very large degree wave A of 4 that must overlap wave 1's 2134 end. Expectations are that this wave 4 will revisit the election night lows on the S&P Futures at 2030. The A portion of this wave 4 could take us to this area, considering how historically low VIX is now, and how historically high margin debt is now. For the remainder of today, a rebound off this first wave down is underway, and a near double-top to today's lows wouldn't be surprising to give the powers that be more time to sell inventory at near top-tick pricing.... the perfect place to purchase index puts of varying strikes and expirations to maximize the gain on this coming down move.
Wave 4's inside an ending diagonal are sharp moves and relatively quick, especially compared to Wave 3's. This correction should complete within 3 months, and will be followed by an even sharper Wave 5 which will probably take the SPX to new highs later in the year. That high should be the last new SPX high we see in our lifetimes.