|Auger50 asks: "Thoughts on the recent Q?"|
I assume that given the refresh of the SLK and the SL, volumes were very very low and perhaps there was no MSC incorporated into the final build. Also MB's MY17 S Class DOG, has MSC as new for the '17 models. We've seen some late build 2016 V222's with MSC, but maybe those were March builds and there weren't too many of them.
In the past there has been more stockpiling of MSC roof systems, and so I would have expected to see May/June sales for the SLC/SL. Perhaps it's more' just in time' theses days.
My big question is how much has the pricing for the SPD come down and is that what we are seeing. The SLK/SL range was $100-$150/unit and the S was $150-$250/unit. Could we be under that range now?
If you take Joe at his word that take rates have never been higher, then it's total production volume and cost of the film. I think Joe wouldn't lie outright about the take rates and so I assume very few cars were built and that pricing has dropped a lot.
Looking beyond Q2, my view is that the technology has made a lot of headway in the last few years and that we're seeing accelerating adoption across a lot of different industries. A year ago, there were no OEM airplanes using SPD, despite years of talking about it. Now there are 5 models that actually are flying (the Hawkers, Hondajet and the EC175(only one, made but still:))
I see no reason to assume linear adoption rates, and so we are early in the s shaped adoption curve, but we are going up it.
Cost of film, awareness and network effect(does it work, who can vouch for it, where can I touch it etc) are the big obstacles to big adoption and we're starting to see that take hold.
Mercedes isn't taking a flyer on it, this is the 5th or 6th model year that they are using it and they've put it into their marquee models. So I assume we see it trickle down through their model line over time, maybe before the next OEM.
But it's not a quarter to quarter gamble. Inspectech was showing interior SPD partitions 6 years ago, apparently it took that long for a commercial airline to try it in the real world.
I remain hopeful that this pays off, from the vantage point of a $3 stock, but I would certainly be headed for the exits were the stock in the teens given what we know.