|80% of ammonia and nitrogen production is from natural gas, the rest mainly from coal. China and India use coal and oil, mainly coal. CF bet is on the unsustainable low cost of coal that will cause many producers to get out of the market, additionally they are betting that China cannot meet their export with the demand for ammonia and nitrogen. |
If CF is right, the real short-term threat may be Iran, that sits on top of big reserves of natural gas and had its sanctions lifted recently. nevertheless their capacity to export it is still low and will be so for some time.
Until the world economy is drugged, commodities can stay low, but if US continue to raise rates an uptrend will start. Without free money the supply will slow down, IMO.
Oil is in the middle of a world price war and as soon as the victims start to fall we will have a huge volatility in the price unless we restore price control somehow. Volatility in oil will cause other commodities to be volatile.