My EOY review of MVIS
INTRO Here's my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
MicroVision
MVIS (market cap was $0.064B is $0.042B)
MicroVision is a highly speculative company and MVIS is a highly speculative stock. Investors speculate about both quite a bit. MicroVision is an electronics component developer that occasionally produces products and is known for an impressive patent portfolio. Their current business strategy is more aligned with licensing than production. MicroVision's chief technology is based on a MEMS mirror, a mirror on a chip that can be oscillated quickly and accurately enough for image production or image capture. The expected application is for projectors that are small enough to fit into mobile phones, dashboards, eyewear, etc. The market is incredible, as in not credible, as in hard to believe - and yet, that is an emotional reaction, not a logical one. Math and logic produce very large revenue estimates (and resulting stock prices) because even a small fraction of the electronic display market is a very large number. Additional enthusiasm arises because such a small projector could enable devices that are not obvious until such a component sees wider use. Very few expected computers and cameras to become key features of phones.
MicroVision also has a reputation for over-promising and under-delivering, with subsequently great investor discussions over whether the company or the shareholders raised expectations too high. For years it has seemed that the company's success is only six to nine months away, and that the explanation for why it didn't just happen is quite reasonable. In retrospect, the company's official words were always more understated than I remembered. In further retrospect, particularly as the expected 1-2 OEM deals in 2H13 didn't materialize, I realize my emotions continue to be tied to those expectations. As a responsible adult, I'm responsible for my own emotions. As an investor, I have to consider the possibility that the expectations were set by either management, the rest of the investor community, myself, or some combination. I believe it is some combination because I am not the only one disheartened by the lack of news. The passion in the investor discussions also suggests I am not alone in the discordance. I don't want the company to only communicate according to the barest of minimum legal requirements, but I believe there is a need for better communications between the management and the people who own the company, the shareholders.
The optimist in me is getting tired, and knows that I can't know what constraints the company is operating under. Any day could start with a secrecy lid removed as a customer announces a phenomenal product with MVIS-inside that is available for sale in millions of units. Evidently, some customers weren't interested until such volume could be reliably manufactured. (And here, the incredulity manifests itself and I wonder if I heard such assertions from non-company sources.) The pessimist in me is starting to wag a finger at the investor (oops, speculator) in the mirror and repeatedly say, "I told you so. I told you so." whenever news of a delay arrives. The optimist looks forward to the day of saying, "I told you so." as well, but in that case champagne or good scotch will be involved. At this point, at the end of yet another year that didn't meet my expectations, I won't know which one is right.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 1999 (though the very first shares are gone), and my patience is gone, yet my perseverance and majority of shares remain. I have more than enough if the company finally succeeds and the stock reaches the heights I think are possible. I may buy more simply because the stock is so cheap. (A longer post is available at trimbathcreative.wordpress.com
(I've also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog trimbathcreative.wordpress.com
MVIS market cap
12/27/13 .041
6/30/13 .064
12/31/12 .048
6/30/12 .027
12/31/11 .042
6/30/11 .128
12/31/10 .177
6/30/10 .263
12/31/09 .244
6/30/09 .190
12/31/08 .11
07/01/08 .16
12/31/07 .094
06/30/07 .20
12/31/06 .126
06/30/06 .049 |
