My EOY review of GERN
INTRO Here's my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
Geron
GERN (market cap was $0.196B is $0.611B)
Geron was a leading edge biotech that was diversified in four leading edge technologies. They were very leading edge, which also means things are more likely to fail. Unfavorable clinical trial data encouraged them to stop most of the trials and to sell off some of their intellectual property. Fortunately, their most recent data is encouraging, helping people fight bone marrow malignancies, and in some cases returning the bone marrow to a healthy condition. This is done through telomerase management, a molecule that controls a cell's regenerative processes. FDA approval of that one technology is sufficient to create a profitable company. The treatment is years away from its shot at FDA approval. The process could be slowed because the treatment is innovative, or it could be sped up because nothing else works as well.
Biotechs all require caution. Innovative biotechs require more caution. Geron's potential is great, but it could also experience Dendreon's curse. Dendreon developed an innovative cancer vaccine, received FDA approval, and then didn't live up to expectations despite making hundreds of millions in revenue. To me, there appears to be a disconnect between the market's reaction and company's success. While it was easy to dismiss conspiracy theories about Dendreon's enemies, the industrial immune response against threats to multi-billion dollar revenue streams from conventional, existing treatments could explain some of the extraordinary trading activity; e.g. flash crashes, etc. One sign of the similarities are the price swings in GERN prior to and after their press release about the trail data.
The optimist in me is encouraged and hopes that Geron's and GERN's future won't look like Dendreon's and DNDN's past. The pessimist obviously has a different opinion.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 1999 and continuing to hold (and kick myself for selling half just a few months ago. trimbathcreative.wordpress.com
(I've also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog trimbathcreative.wordpress.com |
