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Strategies & Market Trends : Shorts waiting to happen

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To: Cadaver who wrote (825)12/1/1997 11:22:00 PM
From: Cadaver   of 852
 
THE OMEN

Dear shorters...I often speak about omens in the charts. What are omens?

An omen is an unmistakable sign that confirms your suspicions. It's a sign you have been waiting for.

A sign that something is changing in the company.

Take the classical example of ASND.

ASND went from $1 to $80 in a matter of 2 years. A phenomenal 80 bagger. All this time ASND's weekly chart was one straight line. People used to say: "Ascend will never descend" Then in mid 1996 something changed. Instead of moving in it's characteristic straight line, it began to turn into a circular round hilly shape. That was weird. ASND then made it's first fall. Everyone jumped in to buy the stock at the cheaper price. I had wanted to buy ASND for a long time, but when this opportunity presented itself, I chose not to. The reason was simple. This was not my ASND. ASND recovered and went about as if nothing had happened. But I then waited and watched for a sharp downward move that would come without warning. It came. That was the omen. I predicted ASND had turned around and would systematically break down. It did.

Success in shorting (or even longing) shares is based on your ability to correctly recognise the omens. To do this you must follow the stocks movement until you are intimately familiar with it. You must sense it's vibrations until you know the stock. After that, when something changes, you will sense the change and take appropriate action. With practice, the time required for this familiarity will reduce, esp. if you are following other stocks in the same industry.

Also, always follow the index the stock is listed in, eg. NASDAQ for tech stocks...

Once you get the hang of reading omens, you can read charts faster and much more accurately without knowing what is a bollinger band etc.

-Cadaver
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