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Technology Stocks : Disk Drives - Buy When BLOOD is in the street
WDC 43.35-1.6%10:25 AM EDT

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To: Ned Woodhouse who wrote (70)11/12/1997 6:35:00 PM
From: Pierre-X   of 93
Re: Leading Indicators

>Thoughts/questions: Do you think there's been some improvement in >investors' and analysts' understanding of the cyclic nature of the >disk drive industry?
I'd say no, look at the DRAM business. Lots of people getting creamed there every time, maybe each cohort learns but there's always fresh (ignorant) meat. I guess i'm in that fresh meat category too, with a small TXN position.

>of the red at the bottom of this cycle? If so, what might the >leading indicators of such an upturn be?

Leading indicators: Exit from the industry, like HWP not long ago and now Micropolis
Other indicators: Drop in the RATE of decline of HDD prices/MB. In a business characterized by perpetually falling prices, the RATE of fall is the key (first derivative of the price vs. time, for you mathheads). Insider buying. QNTM and RDRT insiders were buying shares prior to major rockets, look for this.

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