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Technology Stocks : 3G Wireless: Coming Soon or Here Now?

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To: Eric L who wrote (659)8/3/2009 6:24:28 AM
From: Eric L  Read Replies (1) of 666
A 3G Subscription Forecast: 2009 to 2014 (Informa WCIS)

The prior post looked at global Subscribr Connections (subscriptions). This post focuses on 3G subscription (subscriber connection) growth.

At the end of 2004 there were 48 million 3G UMTS (WCDMA) subscriber connections (subscriptions) worldwide. Three years later, by end of 2007 there were 189 million (+ 141 million; a CAGR of +58%). Eighteen months later (June '09 ending) there were 389 million -- +200 million; a +62% CAGR for the 18 months and +65% since 2004 end, despite the fact that the telecoms industry has been in severe recession for the better part of a year. At the end of June there were also 136 million CDMA2000 1xEV-DO 3G subscriber connections -- 30% of all CDMA subscriptions. 3G Connections now total 525 million, 12.6% of global subscriptions (according to Wireless Intelligence).

With a slightly different view of year(s) ending 3G subscciptions, Informa Telecoms & Media's World Cellular Information Services (WCIS) projects that in the 5 years from 2009 end to 2014 end 3G Cellular connections will grow from 560 million to 3.28 Billion (+2.72 billion: a CAGR of 42.4%). This is the subscription progression they see ...

                   2009    2010     2011     2012     2013     2014 
====== ====== ====== ====== ====== ======
Subsceptions 560m 818m 1.2B 1.7B 2.4B 3.2B
YoY Unit Growth - +258m +382m +500m +700m +800m
YoY % Growth - +46% +47% +42% +41% +33%

At the end of 2013 WCIS sees 5.5 million subscriptions with 2G/3G/4G technology mix breaking out this way:
UMTS WCDMA/HSPA   35%   ~1.925 billion subscriptions
2G GSM 54% ~2.970 billion subscriptions
CDMA Family 9% ~495 million subscriptions
Other 2% ~110 million subscriptions

- Eric -
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